2007 MLB Preview: Part 5
American League Central
Turning now to the American League Central; the very best division in baseball. Anyone one of four teams (Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit or Minnesota) could come away with the crown, and the chances are quite high that the Wild Card winner will likewise come out of the Central. It’s nearly impossible to pick a winner here because so many factors (injuries) will determine the outcome. The only team that won’t be in the thick of it will be Kansas City, so we’ll save them for last.

Detroit Tigers: Last year was a banner season in Motown, as they played brilliantly under Jim Leyland to capture their first pennant in over twenty years. But last year was last year. The question is whether they can repeat in 2007. Why not? Top to bottom, they’re solid. They suffered no off season losses and return intact, with the addition of Gary Sheffield.

Beginning with the pitching staff, is there a more dominant five-some out there? They were the reason why Detroit captured the pennant in '06. Jeremy Bonderman is at the top, followed by Kenny Rogers (who rediscovered his balls during the postseason), Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson (returning from elbow surgery) and lefty (whom the Red Sox traded away oh long ago) Mike Maroth. There’s not a dud in the pack, there. EDIT: Rogers will be lost until mid-season after having a blood clot removed from his pitching shoulder, so the other members of the staff will have to step up big-time. Even though they may be without one o ftheir front line starters, look for the staff to find a way to remain competitive.

Out in the bullpen, they have guys that can really bring heat in Fernando Rodney. Joel Zumaya (who throws ‘em “faster than a speeding bullet”), Jason Grilli and Wilfredo Ledezma. Also expect to see Jose Mesa (who’s almost getting too old to participate in Old Timers’ Games) to get a few innings. The closer is Todd Jones (who was seemingly incapable of retiring anyone during his cup of coffee with Boston), who rediscovered the fountain of youth in Florida a couple of years back and has been a dependable closer since. If the staff stays healthy, it may be shades of 1984 (“Wire-To-Wire World Champs”) in Detroit.

The Tigers’ everyday lineup is fantastic. They have speed with Curtis Granderson in center, power with RF Magglio Ordonez and Sheffield, veteran leadership with 1B Sean Casey (a great mid-season acquisition) and the talented 2B Placido Polanco and an All-Star with SS Carlos Guillen. The heart and soul of the group is C Ivan Rodriguez. All Pudge does is win, wherever he’s gone (Texas, Florida and Detroit), he raises the level of play of the players around him. It’s no coincidence that many of last year’s pitchers had career years.

Most teams have a “hangover year” following a pennant winning season, but with Jimmy Leyland, that won’t happen. Besides, there were no free-agent defections or a sense that last year was as far as they could take it. The Tigers are a better team (on paper) than last year. As long as the pitching staff stays healthy, there’s no reason (or excuse) why the team can’t find their way back to October. First place, best case; Wild Card, worst case…

Minnesota Twins: This is the best group the Twins have put together in recent memory, and that’s saying a great deal for a team that’s taken the title five out of the last six years. The key blow to the club will be the loss of the amazing lefty Francisco Liriano who went 12-3, 144K's, a WHIP of 1.0 and an ERA of 2.16. Guys like that are simply irreplaceable in the short run. The Twinkies will have to "make do" with five All-Stars around whom the team’s fortunes revolve. Johan Santana won the Cy Young, and he’s an absolute monster on the hill. 1B Justin Morneau won the AL MVP and is an awesome power threat. Hometown Hero C Joe Mauer won the batting title last year, though he may be slowed by injury starting out of the gate. Torii Hunter can do it all in center, just an amazing talent, and, to cap things off, they have a lights out closer in Joe Nathan. They also have the advantage of playing 81 times in the uniquely dreadful BaggieDome, a desecration to all that is sacred in baseball.

In addition to Mauer, Morneau and Hunter, the everyday lineup is not chopped liver, either. They have a very good leadoff hitter in 2B Luis Castillo, a rising star in SS Jason Bartlett, and RF Michael Cuddyer finally had the breakout year that the organization was figuring would never arrive. However, the rapidly aging Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo will get a lot of AB’s. Their effectiveness remains open to questioning.

The glaring weakness on the Twins is the lack of starting pitching. After Santana, the Twins hope to “cobble together” a crew may feature Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Carlos Silva. That’s not exactly a “deep” staff. Waiting in the wings is a projected stud in Matt Garza. However, their bullpen is the best in the Division. Setting up Nathan will be Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek and long relief workhorse Matt Guerrier.

Because the Twins have always been adept at hitting balls that carom off of the ceiling speakers as well the other perks of playing in modern sports’ most horrific venue, they’ll score a lot of (cheap) runs at home. On the games that Santana pitches at home, there’s about a 99.8% probability of a Twins’ win. Putting that aside, Ron Gardenhire has done a masterful job as a manager, and GM Terry Ryan always finds a way of fielding a competitive team with a tight budget. The lack of depth in starting pitching is a concern. Unless one or two of the projected starters steps up, it will be the Twins who will be looking up. Maybe second place, or maybe third…

Chicago White Sox: The Southside Gang looks to recover from their own hangover season to bounce back into postseason contention. GM Kenny Williams has done well in making moves to keep the team young and competitive. He moved Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy during the off-season for more (and even more!) talented pitching prospects.

Ozzie Guillen’s starting five consists of veterans Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, together with youngster John Danks (over from Texas in the McCarthy deal). That’s a fairly righteous staff on paper. Buehrle had a tough year in ’06 while Contreras went thorugh some health issues.

The White Sox’ bullpen is well-constructed with Mike MacDougal, Matt Thornton,
David Aardsma(over from the North Side) and Gavin Floyd, hard throwers, one and all. Bobby Jenks returns as the Sox’ closer, but there are questions regarding his arm strength and decreasing velocity. Jenks’ health will be an area of concern if the team hopes to make it back to the post season.

The everyday lineup remains by and large the same crew who won the Series in ’05.
CF Darin Erstad came over from Anaheim and, if healthy, ought to provide a steady bat and glove. There are no issues with speed with LF Scott Podsednik, nor are there any power issues with the likes of Paul Konerko (who’s healthy once more and primed for a big year) Jim Thome (who’ll be good for 30-35 HR), 3B Joe Crede and free-agent-to-be RF Jermaine Dye. Up the middle, they have steady, reliable “Glue Guys” in C A.J. Pierzynski, 2B Tadahito Iguchi and SS Juan Uribe.

This is a very good team. If they were in the AL West, they’d run away with it. In all likelihood, the Sox will be fighting it out at the top of the AL Central Rockpile. But there’s just something about their pitching that sets off a couple of red flags. It would not be surprising to see the White Sox finish first, or win the Wild Card, or finish fourth for that matter. The pitching will write the story.

Cleveland Indians: There’s simply too much talent here not to materialize into a post season contender, whether it’s this year or shortly thereafter. They had a frustrating ’06 campaign, due in large part to their pathetic bullpen. GM Mark Shapiro did a masterful job of rebuilding the ‘pen bringing in Joe Borowski to close, ageless Roberto Hernandez and lefty Aaron Fultz to set up.

The Tribe have a good group of starters, led by gargantuan C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Sowers and lefty Cliff Lee (who’ll start the year on the DL).
Paul Byrd will be at the back end of the rotation, but he’s “entering the twilight” as an infamous former GM would categorize it. Phenom righthander Adam Miller looms on the horizon.

The Tribe’s everyday line up features CF Grady Sizemore, their best player followed up by DH-deluxe Travis Hafner, they also made a nice pickup with 2B Josh Barfield from San Diego, he may be what the good doctor order, since Cleveland hasn’t had strength at second since the Robbie Alomar days. SS Jhonny Peralta needs to rebound from a bad year in ’06 if the team has a realistic shot. C Victor Martinez is one of the League’s better backstops, and 3B Andy Marte (who struggled last year, going back and forth to Triple-A) has been handed the keys to the hot corner. The Red Sox may rue the day they let him slip through their fingers. They will also feature a platoon of outfielders featuring David Dellucci (who generally wreaks havoc on Boston pitching) and the ultimate Dirt Dog, Trot Nixon. Look for Trot to have a happy and healthy comeback this year, in the neighborhood of 25 HR and 80 RBI.

The Indians have a legitimate shot, IF the pitching remains reasonably healthy, IF Peralta rediscovers his stick, and IF Marte fulfills his promise. What they lack in team speed they more than compensate with power. (that’s three BIG IF’s). This will be a rebound year for the Tribe, anything’s possible, but there’d be no shame in finishing third.

Last, but not least, are the Kansas City Royals. They’ve finally begun to put some of that revenue sharing money into the product rather than their back pockets. The payroll has been elevated to the $60MM level by new GM Dayton Moore (John Schuerholz’s understudy in Atlanta for the past decade-plus).

Kansas City is a Great American City, at the intersection of 12th and Vine, where the two quintessential American traditions, baseball and jazz, collide. KC and the baseball world are all the lesser now that Mr. Buck O’Neil won’t be on hand to usher in a new season.

Moore’s first order of business was to sign free-agent righthander Gil Meche for $55MM/5 years. Say what? (Stunned silence) Moore then took a flier on the oft-injured closer Octavio Dotel at $5MM/1yr.

Other than Meche at the top of the rotation, the Royals will feature Jorge De La Rosa, Brandon Duckworth, Zack Greinke, and Odalis Perez. This is not exactly a group that could be qualified as “major league talent.” They’re a bunch of 4-A guys, and that’s on a good day.

Last year’s bullpen was simply abominable. This year’s projects as Dotel, along with David Riske, Jimmy Gobble, Joakim Soria, Joel Peralta, Ryan Braun and Todd Wellemeyer. Other than Riske (who spent time in Boston last year), there’s not a great deal to rejoice over. They’re more Motley Crew than Murder’s Row; that’s for certain.

On the field, other than watching the development of Alex Gordon, what’s there to care about? Starting with the good, 3B Gordon will develop into an All-Star within the near future. Time will tell if he can carry the mantle of the Great #5 (which would be a tremendous accomplishment). 1B/DH Mike Sweeney and Ryan Shealy ought to provide the team with desperately needed power numbers. John Buck has the makings of a good everyday catcher, so why did they trade for Jason LaRue during the offseason? Like the Meche acquisition, this doesn’t make a great deal of sense. In addition to Gordon, Sweeney and Shealy, the infield features Esteban German, Tony Peña Jr., and Mark Grudzielanek (who hasn’t been relevant since the days of Chubby Checker and the Twist). The outfield will consist of Emil Brown, David DeJesus, speedy Joey Gathright, Ross Gload, world traveler Reggie Sanders (if not traded) and Mark Teahen. Somewhere, Willie Wilson must be looking at this bunch shaking his head in amazement.

Buddy Bell has the unenviable task of being the caretaker for this bunch. In Buddy’s three managerial stops, only one of his teams finished above .500 (and he’s had the dubious distinction of managing two different teams that lost in excess of 100 games: ’96 Detroit and ’06 Royals). Buddy’s a great baseball man in his own right, let alone the accomplishments of his dad and sons. Surely he deserves better than this. The fact is, John McGraw could rise from the dead to manage this crew and they’d still finish last.

But that is this year. Slowly but surely, the Royals will begin integrating all of the great young talent ripening on the vine, and then they will once more enjoy days of glory.