2007 MLB Preview
Part 4 American League West
Los Angeles Angels: The Angels made a couple of strange moves during the off-season, bringing in CF Gary Matthews, Jr. (5yr/$50MM) and Smilin’ Shea Hillenbrand. Neither player really adds any pop to the lineup. LF Garret Anderson’s wheels aren’t what they once were, so Matthews better be ready to roam a great deal toward leftfield. They do have some fine young everyday talent with 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Howie Kendrick, C Mike Napoli, and the speedy Chone Figgins at third. Red Sox favorite OC returns at short, but the story for the Angels will be the health and well-being of RF Vladimir Guerrero. When Vladie’s healthy, he’s a top 10 talent. But he’s no longer the young stud who tore apart the National League. He’s had health issues in the years he’s been out in Anaheim, but the Angels really need him to be injury-free this year, because integrating new bats into the lineup which surely cause a lot of bumpy rides.

What separates the Angels from their division rivals is the quality and depth of the pitching staff. They brought in primo-set up righty Justin Speier via free agency. The rotation is anchored by John Lackey, one of the best starters in the League. Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar and Jered Weaver follow up Lackey to provide a potent 1 through 4. When 450 lb. Bartolo Colon returns from injury, this staff will be frighteningly good. Scot Shields will be setting up along with Speier for Francisco K-Rod Rodriguez, who’s among the elite closers in the league.

Pitching won’t be the problem here; putting together a consistent offense is. If the Angels’ bats can get their act together, they will win the Division.

Oakland: The “Swingin’ A’s” (as they were called back in the day) always seem to start slow and end up catching fire sometime in June. The A’s pulled off yet another division title in ’06, this time with the use of mirrors. They replaced perennial sourpuss Ken Macha at the helm with Bob Geren. GM Billy Beane always has a knack of finding the right players to fill holes at the right time. However, this year will be a challenge due to the lack of pitching depth. LF Shannon Stewart and DH Mike Piazza were brought in via free agency and should provide some power and speed. The ever dependable Eric Chavez returns at 3B together with the ever-charming CF Milton Bradley. “Moneyball” stalwarts RF Nick Swisher, 1B Dan Johnson and SS Bobby Crosby will be the OBP guys that the A’s always seem to rely upon.

On the mound, Barry Zito’s absence will be the Big White Elephant in the room. Rich Harden’s a terrific talent, but he’s always one sneeze away from a lengthy stint on the DL. That puts the team in a precarious spot. The other projected starters Dan Haren, Esteban Loaiza and Joe Blanton are good-to-very good, but they’re not going to consistently blow away American League hitters. They have two terrific set-up guys with Justin Duchscherer and Kiko Calero, but their closer, Huston Street while saving 37 last year also had 12 blown saves. A 25% failure rate is not the hallmark of a top-notch closer.

If they stay healthy, the Athletics can contend for the division. If not, they’ll be looking up.

Texas Rangers: The Rangers always seem to have a wrecking crew of an offense but a train wreck of a pitching staff. It’s pretty much been the same story since 1972. SS Michael Young and 1B Mark Teixeira are about as good as it gets offensively. If 3B Hank Blalock gets his groove back, then their offense will have the makings of something special. 2B Ian Kinsler is also an up and coming threat. Newcomers include 91-year old CF Kenny Lofton and Frank Catalanotto, whom Red Sox fans are absolutely thrilled to no longer be seeing eighteen times a year, because he batted like .700 against Boston pitching. Sammy Sosa (returning to the team with which he started) appears to have made the club on a flier. If he plays as he did in ’05 with Baltimore, his stay in town will be brief. Perhaps the best mood that could describe baseball fans’ reaction to his comeback would be “ambivalent.”

On the mound, Kevin Millwood anchors the rotation, followed up by (horribly overpaid) Vincente Padilla and promising righthander Brandon McCarthy (who came over from the White Sox for two pitching prospects. Other than that, the lack of quality and depth among the starters is palpable. The bullpen is in good shape Akinori Otsuka and Frank Francisco. Otsuka is being pushed back to a set-up role after the team signed one-time shut down closer Eric “Game Over” Gagne from LA. The problem is that Gagne’s pitched a grand total of 15 innings in the last two years. If he’s regained his health, the Rangers will have a great advantage in the later innings. If not, Otsuka returns to the closer’s role and the lack of pitching depth intensifies.

The oppressive weather conditions in Texas will always be the problem (e.g., Millwood’s home/road ERA differential was 1.7 higher in 2006). This disparity reflects how and why the Rangers (despite all of their offensive clout through the years) have always struggled as a franchise. Third place is about as good as it gets in Arlington this year.

Seattle Mariners: Question: What do you get when you combine an incompetent GM with a retread manager? Answer: Last place in the least competitive Division in the League. Last year, the bottom fell out in Seattle due to a dearth of starting pitching and inconsistent performances from the everyday lineup. Other than Ichiro, what’s so exciting about this year’s edition of the Mariners? Their two biggest splashes of the off-season were Jose Vidro (who may require the use of a walker to make it down the first base line), oft-injured Horacio “DL” Ramirez and the highly overrated/overpaid Jeff Weaver who was splendid in the World Series, but overall had a 5.76 ERA. Joining this dubious trio will be the wily ol’ righty Miguel Batista, who ought to give the M’s more than a few quality innings. 84-year old lefty Arthur Rhodes will set-up along with Chris Reitsma, so all of the Mariners’ moves were not completely wasted.

They do have some fine young talent with C Kenjii Johjima, 2B Jose Lopez and slick-fielding Yuniesky Betancourt at short. However, if this team has a prayer of being competitive, they will require breakout years from two highly paid guys who have heretofore failed to deliver, 3B Adrian Beltre and Richie “3K” Sexson.

The Mariners’ prized treasure is young righthander Felix (“The King”) Hernandez. He’s an ace in the making, the cornerstone upon which the pitching staff rests. It ought to be fun tracking his progress. At the back end of the rotation, the M’s feature a lights out closer in J.J. Putz. Neither of these guys will be the reason why the Mariners finish last, it will be all that mediocrity in between.

Can the M’s compete in the AL West? Certainly, anything’s possible. Ichiro is a remarkable leadoff hitter, one of the very best in the last twenty-five years. As constituted, they’ll be much like Texas where they’ll score runs, but will have more trouble keeping their opponents off the base paths. Third place is within the realm of possibility, though the basement is a more likely destination.