2007 MLB Preview
Part 1: National League West

Starting with the most geographically and competitively remote group, the National League West, it appears to be a two-horse race between LA and San Diego for the division Title. With the two-headed monster of Ned Colletti and Our Old Pal Grady, LA will certainly be Old School Ground Zero. The Dodgers made a couple of big splashes in free agency with the signings of RHP Jason Schmidt and CF Juan Pierre (who was obscenely overpaid). Nevertheless, LA has a very good mix of veterans and youth in the everyday lineup. Nomar had a nice comeback year at first base, and they have speed at the top of the lineup with Pierre and Rafael Furcal. About the only consistent power threat they have will be Jeff Kent. The signing of Luis Gonzalez in left was perplexing as he’s well past his prime and his presence is hindering the development of a couple of prime power prospects. Andre Ethier will step into the rightfield void created by Drew’s signing with Boston. The strength of the team will be its starting four, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf, Jason Schmidt and Brad Penny, who are about as good as anyone else’s in the League. Out in the bullpen, there’s the behemoth John Broxton and lefty Hong-Chih Kuo. Takashi Saito saved 24 games in 72 appearances, and the team will need the wily old NPB vet to keep up the good work. All in all, if the Dodgers were in any other Division, they’d be a nice, middle-of-the-road team. However, since they’re in Baseball’s Worst, they have a chance to win the West.

Moving down I-5 an hour and change, the Padres look to three-peat as Division Champs. Their longtime manager, Bruce Bochy, fled the coop and headed north to the Bay. Former Angels’ pitching coach Bud Black takes over. Their off season trade of 2B Josh Barfield to Cleveland caught many by surprise. While they got back a power-plus prospect in 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, it’s hard to see how the tradeoff will produce dividends in a pitcher’s paradise like PETCO Park. They signed Marcus Giles from Atlanta to play back home with brother Brian (who is starting to get long in the tooth). CF Mike Cameron returns along with Adrian Gonzalez at first and Khalil Greene at short. Josh Bard is projected to be the everyday catcher following his trade from Boston last May (the worst trade of The Epstein Era). The Padres’ starting rotation is an eclectic mix of olde and new. Young guns Jake Peavy and Chris Young will share the days with Greg Maddux and David Wells. The health of the latter is an issue. Wells was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes, and (as one who knows) this can be debilitating on certain days. Maddux is at the end of a brilliant career and how much is left in the tank will be a question, though he remains mechanically sound and half of his starts will be in a perfect environment. The Padres have a great bullpen with Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith (Thanks, Theo) setting things up for the ageless Trevor Hoffman. In comparison with the Dodgers, they don’t have as much speed, have a slight edge in power, their starters aren’t as good but their bullpen (if healthy) is every bit LA’s equal. These two teams will duke it out all season for first place.

Moving east toward the Valley of the Sun, the D-Backs are an intriguing bunch. They brought back 87-year old Randy Johnson from the Yankees in exchange for some primo prospects. In the long run, this move doesn’t bode well. Arizona has been getting younger and cheaper since winning the crown in 2001. They have a core group of players who were nurtured along and will be entering their prime in the next year or two. There are no household names among the bunch just yet, but there is a great deal of promise. Cy Young Winner Brandon Webb looks to move into the elite pitchers in the majors, and RJ was brought back to fill a few of those empty seats (14th in NL attendance in ’06). Other than that, there’s a dearth of pitching out at Big Bank Park this year. Filling out (literally) the starting rotation will be Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis acquired from Milwaukee (this Brewers/D-Backs shuttle is getting reminiscent of the Kansas City A’s and the Yankees during the 50’s). Livan will certainly give Arizona innings; it’s a matter of what often comes with the innings that’s a problem. The Snakes’ bullpen is inconsistent on good days and downright awful on others. If they are able to integrate some young pitching into the mix to compliment the everyday group, then the D-Backs may have something to talk about. Look for RJ and Webb to pick up 13-16 wins each, and “pray for rain” on the other days.

Moving from the desert to the Rocky Mountains, Colorado made a few off-season moves by bringing in Willy Tavares and Taylor Buchholz from Houston in exchange for Jason Jennings. Other than that, it simply a question of when will the promises of youth materialize? From a power standpoint, they’re as good as anyone in the Division. Perennial All-Star Todd Helton (who was nearly traded to Boston) returns, though his numbers are in decline. 3B Garrett Atkins, LF Matt Holliday and RF Brad Hawpe provide the Rocks with plenty of pop. Add into the mix highly-touted prospects SS Troy Tulowitzki and C Chris Iannetta, offense shouldn’t be a problem.

It’s the pitching, stupid. Young lefty Jeff Francis is a stud, but after that there’s Aaron Cook, Rodrigo Lopez, Brian Lawrence and Josh Fogg (together with a cast of thousands).Lopez always killed the Red Sox when he pitched for Baltimore, and Lawrence has promise if he can rebound from arm surgery. Cook and Fogg are journeymen who will be cuffed about regularly. As far as the bullpen, any team that employs LaTroy Hawkins is a team going nowhere. In terms of integrating youth into the everyday lineup and offensive strength, they have an edge over Arizona. However, their pitching is not that good beyond Francis. In order to compete, they will have to outslug their opponents. In a game where pitchers best hitters on average three times out of four, that’s not a good recipe for contending.

Last, but not least, we return west to San Francisco where many of the starters are approaching Social Security…leading off will be the newly acquired Dave Roberts (almost 35). No one in New England will ever say a bad thing about this guy. He’ll create havoc on the base paths. The infield consists of Ray Durham (35), Rich Aurilia (35) and Omar Vizquel (40). The young pups are Pedro Feliz (32) and Randy Winn (33). Catcher Benji Molina may be the youngest of the starters (32), but that age in “catcher years” is more like 72 human years. Molina may rate along side Hall-of-Famer Ernie Lombardi as the All-Time slowest major leaguer. To add a youthful touch, the Giants signed 36-year old Ryan Klesko to come off the bench.

While the Giants may have experience on their side, the tradeoff between the departure of Jason Schmidt and the arrival of Barry Zito is a net loss. Zito’s a good pitcher, certainly not a great one. The rest of the rotation features stud Matt Cain, young gun Noah Lowry and the wily old Matt Morris. As far as a group, they’re OK, but not as good as the Dodgers or San Diego’s. Their bullpen is a patchwork of kids and veterans. Armando Benitez is scheduled to close, so Giant fans, hold your breath out there come crunch time.

The only noteworthy story about this team will be the fraudulent chase of the home run record by 43-year old Barry Bonds. There’s an old axiom, “if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it must be a…duck!” Whether or not Bonds used illegal/banned performance enhancing substances or committed perjury or evaded taxes is for a court of law to determine. In the court of public opinion, the verdict came down long ago, despite what his toadies in the media would otherwise suggest. Frankly, anything Bonds says or does has no relevance in my world. The Hammer and The Bambino will always be at the top of the list. When Bonds ultimately hits #756 into McCovey Cove, the cheering will be hollow, and beyond San Francisco not many people will care. Since the fans and the team still rally behind such a despicable character (a “man” who sought to reduce his child support obligations during the ’94 strike), the Giants rightly deserve their spot at the basement of the NL West.