Week 14 Preview

Before delving into the Week 14 slate, it is necessary to provide a brief commentary on the shocking and senseless murder-suicide involving the Chiefs’ linebacker Jovan Belcher last week. This was a heinous and evil deed done by Belcher. Any attempt to justify or ameliorate the blame is 100% wrong. There is no justification for any form of domestic violence, let alone the cold-blooded murder of the mother of his infant girl. To add punctuation to this horrible tragedy, Belcher then took his own life directly in front of Coach Crennel and GM Pioli. Until such time as an autopsy can further explain, we can state with certainty that Belcher’s thought processes were tragically impaired. This is not to explain away his actions, but a rational person is able to control his or her emotions without resorting to violence, regardless of any alleged provocation.

When a tragedy of this proportion hits, generally the first reaction is to look for someone or something to blame. Certain print and broadcast commentators used this tragedy as a platform to urge for more gun control legislation. In my opinion, that’s too easy a response. There are millions of responsible legal gun owners in America who don’t resolve their disputes with firearms.  Others may seek to blame the violent culture of professional football. While there have been suicides attributed to repeated head trauma, incidents of professional football players lashing out against innocent persons have been rare to non-existent.

Perhaps we should look at this tragedy as speaking to an individual’s lack of personal responsibility. With each passing day, more news was revealed regarding Belcher’s final hours. According to news reports, Belcher was drinking heavily and in the company of a woman who was not the mother of his child. After spending the night at this woman’s residence he arrived home around 8am and argued with the mother of his child before shooting her nine times. He then raced to the Chiefs’ facility where he thanked his Coach and GM before taking his life. All in all, it reads like the actions of a highly unstable and volatile young man. Other than the alcohol, we don’t know what other substances he ingested and how such substances reacted with alcohol. Pending toxicology, all we can do is guess.

Two people are dead and a baby girl is orphaned. As with any suicide or murder/suicide, there is a tidal wave of shock and grief among friends and family of the victim and perpetrator. It’s always the case that “no one saw this coming.” But the fact is that the Chiefs were fully aware of the volatile relationship and “bent over backwards” to provide the couple with counseling. Obviously, whoever granted Belcher a license to carry firearms unwittingly screwed up big time. Right now, licensing authorities don’t require a doctor’s note. So long as there’s no prior criminal history, just about anyone can obtain a license without regard to their emotional fitness. That’s a scary fact.

Beyond that, the sheer amount of counseling programs sponsored by the League and NFLPA are staggering. Given the amount of resources devoted to counseling young professional football players on how to behave off the field, there is absolutely no reason why whatever conflicts existed between Belcher and the mother of his child could not have been resolved peacefully. Belcher was given unfettered access to counseling programs that could have prevented this tragedy and it appears as though he failed to pay proper attention when counselors attempted to intervene.

In the end, will anything change as a result of this tragedy? Probably not. The story will move from Page One to the back pages in no time and fade from public view. It will simply be another ugly footnote to the annals of domestic violence and will be forgotten—until the next one comes along.

On to the games…

Denver

-10.5

At Oakland

50

The Broncos are pretty much in cruise control as they travel to the Black Hole on Thursday night. Barring something unfortunate, such as an injury to the quarterback, Denver should have little or no difficulty putting a severe whipping on the Raiders. Last week, Oakland lost at home to Cleveland in a dismal effort. It’s another lost season by the Bay.

Projected Final Score: Denver 27, Oakland 13

 

At Washington

-2.5

Ravens

47

 

We’ll see how well the Ravens can rebound from last week’s loss to Pittsburgh. This was bad enough, but to lose to third-stringer Charlie Batch? That’s pathetic! True, Flacco didn’t have a good day but that’s more a credit to the Pittsburgh defense than to Flacco’s terrible performance. This week, they make the short hop down to FedEx Field to face RGIII and the Redskins. On Monday night, the Redskins upended the Giants 17-16 and they’re on quite a roll now, challenging for top spot in the NFC East.

Projected Final Score: Washington 24, Ravens 21

At Cleveland

-6.5

Kansas City

37.5

The Browns return home in a good frame of mind after having thrashed the Raiders on the Coast last week. It’s hard to predict what sort of frame of mind the Chiefs will have a week after an unspeakable tragedy turned their worlds upside down. Last week, they were able to momentarily push their shock and grief aside to play their best game of the season (for whatever that mattered). This week, they must grieve for themselves and the families and friends involved. The cold reality of the tragedy may set in and cause a collective funk or it may further inspire the players to carry forward with a unified effort. Playing against Cleveland this week is probably the least of their concerns.

Projected Final Score: Cleveland 23, Kansas City 14

At Pittsburgh

-7.5

San Diego

42.5

 

As of Monday, this one was off the board as no one knew whether Roethlisberger would play. On Thursday, the Steelers announced that he would play. The Steelers’ defense simply had an outstanding effort against the Ravens, shutting Flacco down cold and enabling the offense just enough plays to seal the deal as time ran out on the clock. This week, they’ll have to duplicate the effort as Philip Rivers and the Chargers come to Heinz Field on Sunday. If Big Ben plays, the Steelers should be prohibitive favorites. If it’s Charlie Batch redux, then things could get dicey. The Bengals got the better of San Diego last week by a touchdown as Rivers’ desperation pass into the end zone was intercepted in the final moments of the game. The Chargers are 4-8 and are going home for the winter in just a matter of weeks. Pittsburgh remains very much in the hunt for a Wild Card shot and have no intention of slowing up now.

Projected Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, San Diego 17

At Indianapolis

-5.5

Tennessee

48.5

Can you believe that fourth-quarter comeback in Detroit by Andrew Luck and the Indy offense? Indianapolis is now 8-4 and in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth. This week, they turn their attention to the woebegone Titans, who were crushed 24-10 by the Texans. It really doesn’t matter who will be at the controls for Tennessee, as they’re an awful team that just lost their best offensive lineman to a broken leg last week. Luck has impressed everyone with his poise and skill and (outside of the New England game), has played like a seasoned pro. He was definitely worthy of the first overall pick in the draft and will only continue to improve. Indy returns home this week and should continue to roll against an opponent that’s already packed it in for the year.

Projected Final Score: Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 20

NY Jets

-2

At Jacksonville

38.5

The Jets were less awful than the Cardinals and came away with a 7-6 win courtesy of a touchdown pass from their third stringer. Sanchez was a turnover machine last Sunday and was mercifully pulled in favor of McElroy, who was barely able to get the job done. Now they travel to North Florida for a date with the offensively-challenged Jaguars. Usually, the Jags’ defense plays tough but they really gave it up in Buffalo last week. Coach Rex is keeping the identity of this week’s starter close to the vest. Sanchez has been given repeated chances to take control of the offense but has been unable to close the deal as he had in years past. For both of these teams, the season is already lost. At least for the Jags, Chad Henne is going to get the snaps in the final weeks but whether Sanchez is in a prolonged slump or has permanently lost his touch is a matter for him and the coaching staff to sort out. There’s no denying that this matchup is not exactly “must see tv”.

Projected Final Score: Jacksonville 20, NY Jets 17

Chicago

-3

At Minnesota

39.5

The Bears have to be smarting after last week’s home loss to Seattle in overtime. This was a game in which they had the Seahawks dead to rights and let them off the hook. This was a disturbing loss for a team that still harbors playoff hopes but were knocked out of first place. They ought to be sufficiently motivated to go to the Baggie Dome and try to knock off a key divisional rival in game that has playoff seeding implications. Last week, AP ran up, down, around and over everyone at Lambeau Field and the Vikings still lost. That he has been able to fully recover from last season’s gruesome knee injury is a testament to his determination and greatness. It’s just a shame that the offense now consists of him toting the rock 25+ times a game. Christian Ponder’s development as a quarterback has now come into question. He hasn’t played anywhere like the “franchise quarterback” the Vikings hoped they were getting when they drafted him a few years ago. After a promising start, the Vikings have now drifted into irrelevance.

Projected Final Score: Chicago 21, Minnesota 17

Atlanta

-3.5

At Carolina

47.5

The 11-1 Falcons haven’t bowled anyone over as of late but Matt Ryan & Co. are doing all of the little things right as they head for the NFC’s overall top seed. After the Falcons’ defense stopped Drew Brees cold last week, they look to confound and confuse Cam Newton this week. The Panthers lost in Kansas City last week. Whether that was a case of coming out flat against a Chiefs’ team that was dealing with conflicting emotions is a story that can only be told by the tale of the tape. On the surface, it appears as though they simply played with no heart. There were big things expected of Newton and the Panthers this year but he and his teammates took a big step back in their development. It’s a game that doesn’t mean much as the Panthers are playing out the string while Atlanta is looking forward to January football.

Projected Final Score: Atlanta 27, Carolina 20

At Tampa Bay

-7.5

Philadelphia

45.5

A few weeks ago, Andy Reid fired his defensive coordinator. This week, he fired the defensive line coach, of whom it has been alleged referred to the departed DC as “Juanita”. No wonder it’s been a lost season in Philly. With tools like that in positions of responsibility, it’s hardly a shock that the Eagles went down the drain this year. Reid will justifiably take the hit for this lack of professionalism at season’s end. But there are still a handful of games remaining before the reaper comes calling. They travel to Mabry Blvd. this week to take on a Bucs’ team that is looking to rebound from a tough loss in Denver. The Bucs may be going to the playoffs but that secondary is a real work in progress. Nick Foles had some success moving the ball through the air against Dallas on Sunday night and should be able to move the chains against a terrible secondary. Whether the Eagles can stop Josh Freeman and the Bucs’ offense is another matter altogether.

Projected Final Score: Tampa Bay 23, Philadelphia 14

At Buffalo

-3

St. Louis

42

Both of these teams are coming off of highly satisfying wins last week as the Bills toyed with Jacksonville and the Rams knocked off San Francisco in overtime. So both are on huge momentum swings in a game that ought to be a good match of fairly even teams. Both of these teams are within sniffing distance of .500 and it would be a great accomplishment for these teams to finish at .500 or better. The Bills are home this week, where they seem to play well (except against the Patriots) while the Rams are coming off of a huge emotional upset of a divisional opponent. It’s hard to expect a building team to have the same level of focus and determination coming into this game.

Projected Final Score: Buffalo 24, St. Louis 20

At Cincinnati

-3

Dallas

45.5

“Them Cowboys” travel to the Queen City to face a Bengals’ team that actually won a game against an inferior opponent (on the road, no less) last week. Dallas defeated Philly on Sunday night in a game that was more of a track meet until the end. The Cowboys come into this matchup hurting on defense but Romo and the offense can still do enough things well to make this matchup quite a challenge for the Bengals. Despite their encouraging road win last week, the Bengals remain a team who performances cannot be trusted with reasonable certainty. The Bengals are 7-5 and tied for second with Pittsburgh in the NFC North and this is a huge game for them. It’s no less for Dallas as they’re only a game behind the G-Men in a tie for second with the Redskins, who are absolutely on fire. This game will have big implications for the winner and loser going forward.

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati 24, Dallas 20

At San Francisco

-10.5

Miami

39.5

This is a tough matchup for the Dolphins. Travelling west after having lost a close game at home to New England will be tough enough. Having to face an ornery ‘Niners team that lost in overtime last week is nigh impossible.The Dolphins played their hearts out in a tough divisional loss and it’s hard to see them duplicating the same effort.  Coach Harbaugh indicated that Colin Kaepernick will remain the starter despite his struggles against the Rams. The loss in St. Louis was probably a bump in the road as there’s no doubt that San Francisco will be in contention for the NFC Championship in late January. Kaepernick’s performance bears close watching as the ‘Niners cannot afford mediocre play from the quarterback position moving forward. There cannot be any repeats of last week if the ‘Niners want to remain rolling in the positive.

Projected Final Score: San Francisco 27, Miami 13

At NY Giants

-6

New Orleans

53

The G-Men got a full taste of RGIII on Monday night, as he burned them with a touchdown pass late in the game and the Giants lost 17-16. At one point, the Giants had a healthy lead in the NFC East that has now withered down to one game. In past seasons, this is the point of the year when Coach Coughlin’s crew gets their act together for the playoff run. The Saints are playing out the string and probably have little or no motivation heading into this game. Brees’ touchdown pass streak is over and they have nothing but professional pride for which to play.

 Projected Final Score: NY Giants 31, New Orleans 24

At Seattle

-10

Arizona

35

Pretty soon, they’ll be dragging strangers out of the stands to quarterback the Cardinals. Who was responsible for that abomination at the Meadowlands last week? Was it the fifth-string quarterback? The Cards were only able to put up two field goals against the Jets last week and the Cards are now in full LOSER mode for the rest of the season. It’s a real waste of a pretty good defense. Talk about teams that have nothing to play for, Arizona started out the year like a house afire only to turn to ashes after their offensive line couldn’t keep any of their quarterbacks upright. On the other hand, the Seahawks have to feel mighty optimistic about their playoff chances after their big upset win over the Bears last week.  The defense is licking their chops getting ready to go after the Cardinals’ turnstile O-Line and Russell Wilson will be looking to exploit all of the weaknesses that the Cards present. Barring anything unforeseen, this ought to be the equivalent of a turkey shoot for the Seahawks.

Projected Final Score: Seattle 27, Arizona 13

At Green Bay

-6.5

Detroit

52

Sunday Night returns to Lambeau Field, where the Packers hope to maintain or increase their tenuous hold on first place in the NFC North against the fading Lions. Teams that are in contention simply don’t fold the way the Lions did last week. That was inexcusable and a big reason why they’ll be outside looking in come playoff time. Aaron Rodgers is coming off of one of his better outings as the Pack trashed Minnesota’s defense last week. Detroit is out of the hunt for this year but this is a game that the Packers badly need to win to stay atop the division and keep momentum rolling. Sure, the Lions would love to knock off Green Bay and derail their hopes of divisional supremacy, but that’s not going to happen on Sunday.

Projected Final Score: Green Bay 28, Detroit 21

Monday Night Preview:

At New England

-4.5

Houston

51.5

Why should the Patriots be favored? Simply because they’re home? Houston is 11-1 and has been the class of the AFC through 13 weeks. Matt Schaub has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, namely Arian Foster (who can barrel through the line) and Andre Johnson, who’s one of the best pass catchers in football. On defense, J.J. Watt is an absolute beast and he is surrounded by a highly capable crew of defenders. The Texans flattened Tennessee in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. They are on a seemingly unstoppable roll to the AFC Championship. In their way stand the Patriots. Last week, the Pats travelled to Miami where they pulled out a squeaker. That performance shouldn’t have much bearing on this contest as the Patriots traditionally have a hard time playing in Miami. New England’s defense has played somewhat better in recent weeks but the Texans are a completely different kettle of fish. They can do a lot of things on offense and can turn the Patriots’ defense into that awful group that played the first half of the year. Houston (not the Patriots) has earned the right to be favorites whether they’re home or on the road. After this game, they’ll make it emphatically clear that they’re the team to beat in the AFC.

Projected Final Score: Houston 31, New England 24