Week 2 Review/Week 3 Preview
For the Week/Season:

v. W/L:                      (8/8)/(15-17)

v. Spread                    (7-9)/(9-23)
v. Aggregate:             (12-4)/(21-11)

 

vs. ATS:

CBS Prisco                            15-17-0

CBS Judge                             14-18-0

CBS Freeman                       15-17-0

CBS La Canfora                    13-19-0          

CBS Richard                         12-20-0

CBS Brinson                         20-12-0

CBS Katzowitz                      18-14-0         

CBSWilson                            12-20-0

Walter Football:                  11-20-1

Grantland/Simmons:         16-15-2

 

Vs. W/L:

USAT Jarrett Bell                18-14

USAT Jim Corbett              17-15

USAT Nate Davis                 18-14

USAT Mike Garafolo           8-8

USAT Robert Klemko         20-12

USAT Pete O'Brien                          16-16

USAT Simon Samano         20-12

ESPN Allen                           17-15

ESPN Golic                           18-14

ESPN Hoge                           18-14

ESPN Jaworski                     20-12

ESPN Mortensen                 20-12

ESPN Schefter                      21-11

ESPN Schlereth                   17-15

ESPN Wickersham             22-10

ESPN Jackson                      16-16

ESPN Johnson                     19-13

ESPN Ditka                           17-15

ESPN Carter                                     17-15

ESPN Accuscore                   20-12

ESPN Pick 'em                      18-14

PFT Florio:                           18-14

PFT MDS:                             18-14             

Week 3 Preview:

Week 3 opens on a sad note as Steve Sabol, the pioneer of NFL Films has passed away. Since the ‘60’s, NFL Films chronicled every game and produced countless specials which married film to music for unforgettable viewing experiences for millions of football fans everywhere. The glory days of NFL Films featured “The Voice”, John Facenda and the great soundtracks of Sam Spence. It would not be hyperbole to suggest that NFL Films was instrumental to making the NFL what it is today. Steve, and his father, Ed, were true originals who will be missed. Rest In Peace.

Week 2 represented a much better performance on our part. Not perfect by a long shot, but definitely getting back in the groove. Now only if the teams would play as we’d expect them to! What did we learn from Week 2?

New England’s loss to Arizona was squarely on the O-Line, who stunk out the park.  It would’ve been great if Gostkowski made that kick but it never should’ve come down to that. The Patriots’ offense was sluggish for three quarters and only came to life when it was almost too late.

It was yet another week of surprises. The G-Men were lucky to come away with a win, Miami and Buffalo both had big wins and Philly tipped the Ravens by a point despite the fact that they turned over the ball four more times.

Through two weeks and a Thursday night, the overall play in the NFL has been uneven at best and really hard for even the most seasoned handicappers to get a handle on. Of course, this has the Boys in Vegas rubbing their hands with glee. Whether it’s a matter of replacement referees or just awful play by a lot of the teams, this year has gone anything but according to form. That’s why we counsel against any form of wagering on football at the beginning of each year.

Carolina’s performance on Thursday night was disgraceful. What a letdown, as we picked them to win in a close game. Instead they got smoked. The whole team was spectacularly bad. Their paper-thin O-Line enabled the Giants’ front seven to have ample opportunities to harass and wreak havoc with Cam Newton all night.

 

After a couple of weeks’ worth of games, total offense and defense statistics start to come into play for analysis.

We haven’t addressed the issues involving scab referees over the first two weeks, but their overall performances have left football fans perplexed. As regards the regular referees, the primary bone of contention is the pension plan. The NFL argues why should part-time employees be eligible to participate in a defined benefit plan? The referees’ union has offered to allow all new hires to go on a 401(k) plan while grandfathering the existing refs under the existing DB plan. The NFL said no and locked out the unionized referees. The NFL has revenues of $9 Billion with a ‘B’. How much money are we talking about when it comes to the future pension liability of 100 part-time employees; probably not even a drop in the bucket. Yet, the NFL has the unmitigated gall to pass off these third-rate scabs as competent officials. The officiating of the Denver-Atlanta game was a joke as it took nearly an hour to play one quarter. The players and coaches have no respect for the scab crews and it shows.  People in New England are irate over a holding call against Gronkowski late in the game that wiped out what would’ve been a game-winning touchdown. A review of the play indicated that the hold was marginal at best and probably would not have been called by an established crew under the circumstances. That’s only one of the dubious calls that occurred last week.  A guy from one crew was pulled from the Saints’ game when photos of him decked out in full Saints’ regalia popped up on the internet. Seriously, where is the NFL getting these guys from? They’re probably recruited from high schools and bottom-of the barrel Division III conferences because no decent referee would sell his soul to be a scab for the NFL.

Week 3 Thursday Night Preview

NY Giants	-1		At Carolina		51.5

The Giants were fortunate to escape with a victory at home against Tampa Bay. They continue with their tour against the NFC South when they visit the Panthers on Thursday night. Carolina rebounded nicely from a Week 1 loss on the road with a big home win over the Saints. Cam Newton effectively used his arm and legs to propel the Panthers to victory. Right now, the G-Men lead the League in passing at nearly 350 yd/gm and are only behind Philly in total offense. While it’s early, Eli Manning has been impressive (if you take away those picks he threw in the Bucs’ game). The Panthers’ pass D has been middle of the pack so far, then again, the Giants’ D has been nothing to write home about either. With the NFC South in flux, this is a much bigger game for Carolina than for the Giants.

Projected Final Score: Carolina 27, NY Giants 24

At Chicago

-7.5

St. Louis 44.5

Why should anyone give Cutler and the Bears’ offense a double-digit spread? On Monday, the Bears were -10.5 before saner minds prevailed.  Cutler is the ultimate tease; performing well enough against the weak sisters and then imploding against quality opponents. The Rams have played surprisingly well under Coach Fisher, barely losing in Week 1 before posting a nice home win against Washington last week. Give credit to that wily old vet Cortland Finnegan for getting the Redskins’ rookie to swallow the bait and commit a stupid penalty at a crucial time in the game. The Bears are coming off a horrid loss, one in which Cutler made a fool of himself by verbally abusing members of the offensive line. Dan Marino may have gotten away with that because he was a legend. Cutler? Not so much…The Rams’ defense is allowing 80 yd/gm more than the Bears, but both defenses have been mediocre so far. The Bears’ offense is near the bottom of the pack. Whether that’s simply the by-product of one bad game or indicative of a trend remains to be seen. 

Projected Final Score: Chicago 24, St. Louis 17

At Dallas

-7

Tampa Bay   46

Speaking of teases, Exhibit “B” is the Dallas Cowboys. After posting a huge win on the road against the Giants, the fell flat on their faces in Seattle last week. Now they return home to face the Bucs, who put up a lot of points against the Giants as well only to lose at the end. That whole shouting match between Coaches Coughlin and Schiano was much ado about nothing. The Giants went into prevent mode on the last play of the game while the Bucs’ D came hard charging through the line and knocked Manning on his duff. Coughlin was irate about it and gave Schiano a piece of his mind. It’s football, get over it. Yes, the Cowboys were putrid in Seattle but they now have a chance to atone against the Bucs. The Cowboys have been averaging about 80 yd/gm in total offense more than Tampa Bay, despite their awful outing in Seattle last week. After two weeks, the Bucs’ defense has been porous, allowing over 450 yards/game. After two weeks, Tampa Bay is 31^st in total defense. The defense needs to do a much better job or it’s going to be a long season for Coach Schiano and his troops.

Projected Final Score: Dallas 31, Tampa Bay 21

San Francisco

-7

At Minnesota 43.5

Our hunch that the Vikes would struggle against Indianapolis proved to be correct, but they’re performing like a young and building team should, up one week and down the next. In Week 3, they host the 49’ers, who are coming off Sunday night’s big win over Detroit. After two weeks, both of these teams’ defenses are running neck and neck in terms of yards allowed/gm. That ought to change in the ‘Niners favor over time but the Vikings have played slightly better than expected so far. Their fortunes will take a turn for the worst on Sunday as Coach Harbaugh will probably cook up a gameplan on defense to utterly baffle young Christian Ponder. After working with about 25 offensive coordinators so far, Alex Smith has become a capable game manager at quarterback. He now has enough weapons on the ground and through the air to bulldoze any defense placed before him.

Projected Final Score: San Francisco 24, Minnesota 16

Detroit

-3

At Tennessee 47

The Lions face a tough cross-country road trip, moving from San Francisco in Week 2 to Nashville this week for a date with the 0-2 Titans. The Titans’ defense has averaged 36 points allowed over the first two weeks. This is not good. The Lions may have a bit of jet lag but that won’t stop them from overcoming Sunday night’s loss in ‘Frisco. The Lions were simply outclassed in San Francisco on Sunday night. This week, they get to rectify some of the damage with a trip to Nashville. The Titans’ D is currently allowing over 100 yd/gm more than Detroit. It has leaked like a sieve through two games and needs to improve drastically and that right soon. On offense, they currently rank 31^st and Chris Johnson badly needs to get untracked. After signing that big fat contract extension last year, he’s been a bust. The Lions’ front four offer CJ no favors this week, either.

Projected Final Score: Detroit 27, Tennessee 23

At Washington

-3.5

Cincinnati 48.5

 

RGIII finally makes his home debut before a rabid crowd at Fed Ex Field this week. Unfortunately, Washington lost Orakpo and Carriker for the season last week and that will make the pass rush substantially weaker. The ‘Skins might have lost in Ol’ Saint Lou last week, but that was largely the result of one undisciplined player’s act at a crucial point of the game. RGIII passed for one TD and rushed for two more as he continues to be one of the more compelling stories in the NFL so far. Cincinnati had a 34-27 win over Cleveland last week, but to allow the Brownies to score so many points (Weeden had over 300 yards through the air) is mildly disgraceful. Young teams are going to make stupid, undisciplined mistakes. The Rams (of all teams) exploited this weakness and came away with the victory last Sunday. Under RGIII, the ‘Skins offense currently ranks 4^th at 416 yd/gm. Opposing defenses may eventually catch up to Griffin but so far he’s been a two-week wonder.  Both teams’ defenses have been atrocious so far, but Washington’s losses due to injury really have to hurt moving forward. It simply puts more pressure on RGIII and the ‘Skins offense to perform at an even higher level.

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati 24, Washington 23

NY Jets

-3

At Miami  40

 

The Jets were without Revis in Pittsburgh and his absence was telling as Big Ben tossed two TD passes and threw for 275 yards. They never seemed to be in the game and deservedly lost by two touchdowns. The Dolphins exploded for five touchdowns at home against Oakland and steamrolled the Raiders 35-13. Surely the South Florida heat worked in the Dolphins’ favor. The Jets were dominant in Week 1 and dominated in Week 2. Which team will show up this week? It’s hard to make sense of both of these teams as they’ve each had blowout victories and have been hammered. The Steelers basically flattened Coach Ryan’s crew last Sunday, but the Jets were without Revis. He will be back this week.  Miami once more used the scorching South Florida heat to wear down the opposition before hammering them. The Miami sun is at least worth a touchdown in September. Through two weeks, both defenses have been middle-of-the-pack, but the Jets have averaged 27 points/game. So far, the Jets’ offense has been pedestrian, averaging slightly more than 300 yd/gm. The question is whether Mark Sanchez can deliver on the improvements that are necessary.

Projected Final Score: NY Jets 23, Miami 17

At New Orleans

-8.5

Kansas City 53.5

Both of these teams are 0-2. Something’s gotta give for one of them. The Chiefs were down 35-3 in Buffalo before scoring two touchdowns in garbage time. The Saints tried to make a go of things late against the Panthers but fell just short. It’s officially panic time for both of these 0-2 teams that were expected to contend this year. After two games, the Ain’ts defense is dead last and is taking on water faster than it can dish out. For all their troubles, the Chiefs’ D is almost 100 yd/gm better. But that’s probably going to change after this trip to the Big Easy where the noise and confusion of playing before a raucous Superdome crowd can be stupefying. Both teams’ offenses have been productive, averaging over 400 yd/gm in total offense. For the winner, it’s a chance to get back on even footing within short order. For the losers, they may have dug an intractable hole for themselves.  

Projected Final Score: New Orleans 28, Kansas City 21

Buffalo

-3

At Cleveland 43.5

The Bills smoked the Chiefs at home without Fred Jackson and David Nelson (IR). This week, they make the short hop to Cleveland to face a Browns team that came alive offensively in a Week 2 loss in Cincinnati. The question is whether Brandon Weeden can keep the momentum going against a very tough defense. The Bills benefit from a weak portion of the schedule here. Perhaps their total domination of KC last week is the hope of a winning season. Perhaps it was only one game and indicative of nothing, we’re still very early on. The Bills have a top-10 offense, even with those key injuries. On defense, both teams have surrendered an average of 400 yd/gm, and that has to improve if either of these teams expects to compete over the long term. In Cleveland, perhaps competing in the AFC North is too much to hope for at this stage of their (13-year) learning curve, but for Buffalo, the time is now.

Projected Final Score: Buffalo 27, Cleveland 23

At Indianapolis

-3

Jacksonville 43

Andrew Luck’s home debut against Minnesota proved to be a success as Indy jusyt squeaked by the Vikings 23-20. The Jags’ home opener wasn’t exactly as fruitful as they were stomped by Houston 27-7. The Jags are now 0-2, and if they don’t perform well this week, it may be a lost season already. Although neither of these teams will be competing for top spot in the AFC South, it’s an important game for both. The Jags rank at or near the bottom in total offense and defense. When we review the numbers in a month, there’s a strong likelihood that not much will change. They stink and can’t figure out whether Blaine Gabbert has promise or is a bust. Andrew Luck got his first win under his belt and now looks forward to a Peyton-like career in Indy. Luck and his teammates have a long way to go before he can adequately replace what Manning brought to the table (if such is even possible) but at least the signs of improvement are evident with Coach Pagano’s team, unlike the Jags, who appear to be perpetually doomed to irrelevance.

Projected Final Score: Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 20

Philadelphia

-4

At Arizona 43.5

Give credit to the Cardinals, as their defense is definitely for real as they took it to New England in Foxboro last week, yet they were the beneficiaries of a missed field goal at the very end. This week, Kevin Kolb has a chance to gain a measure of revenge against the team that traded him away. Once again, Michael Vick was a turnover machine last week, but somehow the Eagles’ defense bailed him out. That sort of luck just won’t hold up over the course of a long season. This week will be a great test for both teams, as we’ll find out which team’s defense is superior. Philly has the top rated offense in the league and look like they’ve been doing it with smoke and mirrors in the first two weeks. The trip to Arizona represents a stern test as the Cardinals are coming off a terrific road win in Foxboro last week. The Cards have the 30^th-rated offense after two weeks and you just know those numbers will improve over time. It’s not clear whether Kevin Kolb has supplanted John Skelton (injured) at quarterback, but he’s the answer for the time being. The Eagles’ defense has been especially stingy, and they’ll need to be on Sunday, as the Cards have won nine out of their last eleven.  

Projected Final Score: Arizona 24, Philadelphia 21

At San Diego

-2.5

Atlanta  47.5

The Falcons travel west with one less day with which to prepare for the Chargers after Monday night’s theft of a game over Denver. The Falcons were capitalistic and lucky. The Chargers have gotten off to a fast 2-0 start courtesy of a weak schedule. The Falcons were the unexpected beneficiaries of Peyton’s Bad Quarter. They now travel west to face the 2-0 Chargers in what looms to be a big inter-conference matchup. The Chargers had an easy day against the Titans last week but this is another kettle of fish altogether. Matty Ice has far more weapons at his disposal, but there’s no doubt that the Falcons don’t play as well away from the comfort of the Dome. Some say that Philip Rivers’ arm strength has diminished, but you wouldn’t know it based on his play so far. He looks like the Rivers of old out there and has been undoubtedly buoyed by the team’s fast start. After two weeks, the Chargers have a top-3 defense but will be severely tested this week.

Projected Final Score: San Diego 27, Atlanta 23

Houston

-1

At Denver

46

The Texans have been the class of the AFC so far, annihilating the first two opponents that had the temerity to face them. Week three brings them Mile High to face Peyton Manning and the Broncos. As previously chronicled, Peyton had a rough go of things down in Hot ‘Lanta on Monday night. Manning has so much as stated that he’s not yet 100%, and it sure looked that way in the first quarter as he routinely overthrew his receivers and directly into the arms of the Falcons’ secondary. The Broncos have some very nice pieces on both sides of the ball but it’s going to take a few weeks before the units gel. It’s just a tough deal to face a team that’s clicking on all cylinders before having their house fully in order.

Projected Final Score: Houston 24, Denver 21

Pittsburgh

-5

At Oakland 43.5

The current versions of these teams won’t have anyone recalling those great playoff matchups of the late ‘70’s. Both teams’ defenses are OK, but the Raiders have some serious injury concerns in the backfield as they’re now starting the third-stringers. Surprisingly, the Raiders have outgained Pittsburgh by an average 50 yd/gm. Don’t look for that trend to continue as Polamalu will return and James Harrison could likely return from a knee injury as well. Roethlisberger will exploit the injury-ravaged secondary on Sunday to his heart’s content.

Projected Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Oakland 21

At Baltimore

-3

New England 49

Sunday Night features an AFC Championship rematch as the Patriots travel to M&T and a date with the Ravens’ Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. People are predicting this one to be a classic. Not so fast, Bucko.  The so-called “experts” have backed off their preseason “16-0” predictions for the Patriots. Sure, they played well against the Titans in Week 1 but mistakenly thought that all they had to do was show up for the Cardinals’ game to win. The offense was sloppy and the breakdowns of the O-Line had Brady running for cover all day. Aaron Hernandez was injured and will be lost to the team for up to six weeks, and his absence will really hurt. The Ravens are exactly the wrong team for the Patriots to face while dealing with O-Line issues.   The yahoos on sports radio in Boston are still bemoaning the penalty call and missed field goal at the end of the game. But if winning comes down to a marginal penalty call or a last second field goal attempt, chances are that the team didn’t play well enough to win anyway. This is going to be a tough game for New England. The Ravens surely hold a grudge for the way in which the Conference Championship ended and are eager to show the Patriots who’s boss now.

Projected Final Score: Ravens 27, New England 17

Monday Night Preview:

Green Bay

-3.5

At Seattle

47

 

Monday night brings the MNF crew to Seattle, where the young Seahawks look to get the better of Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Don’t put it past them, as Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch led the ‘Hawks to a 27-7 win over Dallas last week.  This year, the Seahawks home is called “Century Link Field”. Next year, it’ll probably have a different corporate sponsor. Whatever it’s called, the Seahawks have the 12^th Man and it’s more than a catchy slogan. The Seahawks’ fans are among the loudest and proudest in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers will have a hard time getting his voice heard over the crowd. The Packers’ offense has started out slowly over the first two games, ranking 23^rd. But they’re still averaging over 40 yd/gm more than Seattle, who’s near the bottom of the pack. Both defenses are currently running 5-6 in total defense, so look for a hard hitting, low scoring contest.

 

Projected Final Score: Green Bay 24, Seattle 21