NFL Picks for Week 1 (Sunday/Monday)

Like a lot of folks we took our lumps on Wednesday night’s opener as the Cowboys played well and upset the Giants. We now preview the balance of the Week 1 slate looking to improve after a shaky start. Looking at the respective lines, it looks as though the Vegas Boys have taken a tough stance to open the season. Even though there are more than a few weak sisters in the league there are no gimmies this week. 

At Chicago

-9.5

Indianapolis

41.5

For Indy, it’s a whole new ballgame as the Andrew Luck Era debuts in Soldier Field with a tough matchup against the Bears. It’s really a complete rebuild going on in Indy, though Freeney and Mathis remain on the D-Line and they picked up corner Vontae Davis from Miami to stabilize the secondary.  Jay Cutler is fully healed from last season’s broken hand and the Bears’ offense hopes to run roughshod over a rebuilding Indy squad. He is also reunited with Brandon Marshall, his favorite target from their Denver days. Brian Urlacher vows to be in the lineup despite some knee troubles. Luck is going to be an outstanding quarterback in a few years but right now, he’s at the starting line of a long learning curve. Still, the Bears at 9 ½ is a bit too much.  

Projected Final Score:  Chicago 23, Indianapolis 14

Philadelphia

-8.5

At Cleveland

41

The Browns have installed first-round pick Brandon Weeden as their new starting quarterback. Whether he fares any better than Colt McCoy is a question to be determined on the field of play. Rookie Trent Richardson had minor knee surgery during camp and he may or may not be ready for the opener. The Browns are a young team with a lot of holes. For Philly, Coach Reid has once again built a ferocious defense for the Eagles, and they should be licking their chops at the thought of going after a raw rookie at quarterback. Michael Vick’s health has been a concern throughout preseason as he took a couple of big hits during the exhibition games and came up hurting. But Vick has great weapons in LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, who are going to make life miserable for a young Cleveland defense.  

Projected Final Score:  Philadelphia 27, Cleveland 13

At NY Jets

-3.5

Buffalo

41.5

The Jets open up at the New Meadowlands with a date against their WNY rivals, the Bills. Buffalo broke the bank to snare Mario Williams in free agency, and he’s bound to be an impact contributor on the Bills’ revamped defense. Meanwhile, the J-E-T-S really struggled in the preseason as both Sanchez and Tebow have struggled and the Jets’ offense has been anemic.  One thing that isn’t anemic is the Jets’ defense, as it might be the most robust version in Coach Rex’ tenure. The Bills feature the ever-dependable Fred Jackson, who will have several chances to pound the rock. There will be no shootout in Jersey on Sunday. Look for a close, defensive struggle with the Jets squeaking by. Also look out for Tim Tebow to make a couple of critical plays.

Projected Final Score:  NY Jets 20, Buffalo 17

At New Orleans

-9.5

Washington

49.5

The whole “Bountygate” affair has cast a pall over the Saints this year. Coach Payton won’t be around this year together with Jonathan Vilma and a slew of players and coaches who received lesser suspensions. Drew Brees did sign a fabulously wealthy new contract making him the highest-paid player in the game and the burden of the Saints’ fortunes this year rest on his shoulders. The boisterous Superdome crowd will be at deafening decibel levels on Sunday as the Saints look to project a defiant “us against the world” tone. It will be difficult for Washington to compete in such a hostile environment.  It’s a new era for the ‘Skins as the dynamic Heisman-trophy winner Robert Griffin III is set to start at quarterback. It will be interesting to see how RGIII’s running abilities translate to the pro game. Coach Shanahan has surrounded RGIII with a pretty competent crew, so it should be a real treat to watch the kid strut his stuff in a tough venue.

Projected Final Score:  New Orleans 27, Washington 17

New England

-6.5

At Tennessee

47.5

The Pats open the season in Nashville, where Jake Locker and the Titans will be looking to upset the alleged New England juggernaut. The Kool-Aid drinkers have already penciled the Patriots in for another Super Bowl run, but really ought to consider the historical track records of Super Bowl losers the following year. Most of these teams don’t even make it to the playoffs. Still if there’s one group of players who can get over the funk of losing, it’s Coach Belichick’s crew. They’ve added Brandon Lloyd as a deep threat but, boy, that patchwork O-Line may make life difficult for Brady. The Titans’ front seven can really get after the quarterback. Jake Locker beat out Hasselbeck for the starter’s job and is coming into his own. Chris Johnson also had a full camp this year so look for him to return to his 2K form. New England impressed no one during the preseason. In Week 1, the Patriots remain a work in progress.

Projected Final Score:  Tennessee 27, New England 24

At Minnesota

-4.5

Jacksonville

38

The best news that the Vikings have had in recent years is that they’re getting a new stadium and only have to endure one more year at home in the Baggie Dome. The biggest question about the Vikes is whether AP can return to form after a devastating knee injury suffered late last year. They’re still a rebuilding bunch under Coach Frazier and will have their share of ups and downs. Christian Ponder enters his first full year as a starter after last year’s merry-go-round at quarterback. Whether he can do the job is an open question. The Vikes open the season at home, against a young team that they should beat. The Jags feature a new coach but returned virtually all the same cast from last year. The Jags’ best player, Michael Jones-Drew stayed out of training camp in a bitter contract dispute with ownership. He returned days prior to the start of the season. History tells us running backs who miss camp simply can’t turn on the switch during the season. Without MJD, the Jags have to rely on the questionable arm of Blain Gabbert and a hungry group on defense.

Projected Final Score:  Minnesota 20, Jacksonville 13

At Houston

-12.5

Miami

43

The Texans are primed and ready to make a long playoff run this year. Even with the loss of Mario Williams on defense, the Texans are a powerhouse on offense led by Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. Coach Kubiak’s crew wants to be in bulldozer mode for this game, to show all of their AFC rivals that they’re gunning for the top. Miami opened the year with a new head coach (Joe Philbin) and a new starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill but there’s no question that this will be another rebuilding year for the Fins. The question for Miami fans is how bad will it be?

Projected Final Score: Houston 28, Miami 14

At Detroit

-7.5

St. Louis

47

Last year was a breakthrough season for the Lions as all of the young talent they have accumulated in recent years finally bore fruit. This year, they’re primed and ready for a legitimate shot for the NFC North title. Coach Schwartz will have Honolulu Blue ready to go before a rabid home crowd at Ford Field. The Rams continue to stumble along the path of irrelevance as it’s getting high time for Sam Bradford to either put up or shut up. There are a lot of miles on Steven Jackson’s wheels and he will take another beating yet again this year. On defense, the Rams have some up-and-coming players like Chris Long, but it is still a young defense. Jeff Fisher has been brought in to make things run correctly after years of dysfunction. Fisher did an outstanding job for years with the Oilers/Titans and there’s no reason why he can’t do the same thing with the Rams. It’s just going to take some time.

Projected Final Score: Detroit 27, St .Louis 17

Atlanta

-3.5

At Kansas City

41.5

Matt Ryan and the Falcons take to Arrowhead to open the new season with a date with Matt Cassel and the Chiefs. For a few years, Ryan was touted as the next big-time quarterback in the NFL but things have not materialized according to plan. He has all the potential to be a dominant quarterback but so far, the results have not been there (especially in the playoffs). Maybe Ryan is not in a make-or-break situation like Cassel but he really needs to step up and deliver this year. There is a lot of pressure on Cassel to succeed this year. He is a capable quarterback and GM Pioli has provided Cassel with enough tools to win. The Chiefs suffered a ton of injuries to key performers last year and now players like Berry and Charles are poised to return and wreak all sorts of havoc. After firing Haley, the Chiefs rallied around Coach Crennel, who has proven to be more than capable.

Projected Final Score: Kansas City 23, Atlanta 21

At Green Bay

-5.5

San Francisco

45

 

This is the must-see marquee matchup for Week 1. Football fans everywhere are drooling at the site of this game as it features a top offense against a tough defense. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s ‘Niners hit the jackpot in his first year at the helm. The insanely competitive defense came together last year and nearly made it to the Super Bowl. Along the way, Alex Smith was transformed from a bust into a capable starting quarterback.  The Packers are looking to rebound after last year’s disappointing “one and done” at the hands of the Giants. Aaron Rodgers and the full cast of characters returns for what promises to be another title run for Titletown. Coach McCarthy has a balanced lineup on both sides of the ball, though they may be getting a little long in the tooth on defense and have lost key players on defense. The question is whether the Packers’ offense can make strides against the rock-tough ‘Niners defense.

Projected Final Score: Green Bay 24, San Francisco 17

Carolina

-2.5

At Tampa Bay

46.5

We move from a marquee matchup to one in which only close friends and family will be watching. Cam Newton certainly delivered the goods last year but it remains to be seen whether he can continue to grow as a leader of the Panthers’ offense this year. Greg Schiano has taken over as the Bucs’ head coach as the team continues to rebuild. Last year was a rough one for Josh Freeman as he and the team suffered through his sophomore slump. Depending on how the Saints fare with all the suspensions, one or both of these teams could make some noise in the NFC South. Is it such a big gamble that Newton will continue to develop as a quarterback? Or is he destined for a sophomore slump? Newton is the real deal. 

Projected Final Score: Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 20

At Arizona

+2.5

Seattle

40.5

It’s slowly beginning to dawn on all of the Cardinals that Kevin Kolb is not the answer. After paying out all that money to Kolb, it looks as though his performances have been lacking. In a devastating blow, Kurt Warner called out Kolb for failing to “pull the trigger”. For the time being, Fordham’s John Skelton will quarterback the team until such time as he is injured or proven ineffective. Larry Fitzgerald may be one of the most highly-talented wideouts in the game but if the quarterback(s) have trouble getting him the ball then his presence on offense is largely neutralized. The bloom is off the rose with Pete Carroll in Seattle as the Seahawks have been in rebuilding mode long enough. Carroll has installed rookie Russell Wilson from Wisconsin as the starter. Wilson had a great camp and beat out former Packer Matt Flynn for the job. Marshawn Lynch was injured in camp and may-be a no-go for this game. But given the development of the team under Carroll, there’s no reason why the ‘Hawks can’t contend for a wild card shot, given the weak sisters in the division.

Projected Final Score: Seattle 24, Arizona 21

At Denver

-1.5

Pittsburgh

44.5

 

SNF kicks off with a good one, as Peyton Manning makes his debut with the Broncos against an always-tough Steelers team at Mile High. The Steelers are still smarting after the 29-23 overtime loss to Denver in the opening round of the playoffs. That game was the high point of the now-departed Tim Tebow, who never had the confidence of the current management. The Broncos made the biggest splash in free agency by signing Manning, who missed all of last year recovering from neck surgery.  Coach Fox (and Elway) are banking heavily that Manning is fully healed and will simply pick up where he left off as an elite quarterback. The Steelers are always a model of consistency on both sides of the ball. Coach Tomlin’s teams are always well-prepared and ready to go when the bell rings. After last year’s stinging defeat, the Steelers will be angry and looking to atone. But Manning has the weapons and the ability to beat Pittsburgh, it’s just a matter of Big Ben and the Steelers’ consistency that puts them over the top in a close game.

Projected Final Score: Pittsburgh 24, Denver 21

Monday Night Doubleheader

At Ravens

-6.5

Cincinnati

41

The Ravens came ever-so close to a trip to the Super Bowl as a hooked field goal attempt at the end of regulation cost them a trip to the Big Dance. Coach John Harbaugh’s team is a tough group on both sides of the ball. Already legendary on defense with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, the offense with Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin and Joe Flacco is now beginning to warrant the same degree of respect. The maturation of Flacco as a legit NFL quarterback continued last year and there’s no reason why he can’t take his place among the game’s best. The Ravens have a balanced run/pass attack and everyone knows what they bring to the table on defense. But the loss of Suggs has to hurt. The Bengals went to the playoffs last year and although they were pounded 31-10 by Houston, getting to the dance was a big accomplishment for Coach Lewis’ crew. Andy Dalton had an auspicious start to his pro career as he and A.J. Green were able to hook up for some big gains. Cedric Benson has departed but his carries should be capably filled by former Patriot standout Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis, who has gained a terrific reputation as being fumble-proof. Even though it’s only Week 1, this match of AFC North rivals has big implications for the playoffs so both teams will be looking to come out strong.

Projected Final Score: Ravens 27, Cincinnati 20

San Diego

-1.5

At Oakland

47.5

Week 1 wraps up with the Chargers taking a trip up the coast to the Black Hole, where the hosts are never inviting. This marks the first full season without Al Davis at the helm but his spirit lives on. The Raiders are pinning their hopes on a return to form of Carson Palmer, who came in midseason last year after he severed ties with the Bengals. Outside of Darren McFadden, there’s not a whole lot to like about the Raiders’ offense. On defense, the old stalwarts Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour anchor the D-Line but there’s not much else of note on that side of the ball.   Maybe after all those years of being the NFL’s Big Tease perhaps it’s time for the Chargers to take a step back and reevaluate, as they’re no longer as talented as they once were. Maybe Coach Norv is not the guy to lead San Diego any longer. Vincent Jackson has taken his talents to Tampa Bay, and he was Philip Rivers’ primary target. The Chargers are expecting a full return of health from Antonio Gates, who has been plagued with a foot injury in recent years. When healthy, Gates is a standout at tight end. But on this night, before a hostile crowd, look for the Chargers to wilt under the pressure.

Projected Final Score: Oakland 24, San Diego 21