Week 4 Review/Week 5 Preview

For the Week/Season:
vs. W/L: (12-4)/(47-17)
vs. ATS: (7-9)/(36-28)
vs. Aggregate: (5-11)(35-29)

vs. ATS:
CBS Judge 37-27-0
CBS Brinson 37-27-0
Postcards 36-28-0
ESPN Simmons 34-28-2
USAT Saraceno 29-33-2
CBS Freeman 29-35-0
Walter Football 28-31-5
CBS Richard 27-37-0
CBS Prisco 27-37-0

vs. W/L:
Postcards: 47-17
ESPN Golic 47-17
ESPN Schlereth 47-17
ESPN Hoge 46-18
ESPN Pick 'em 46-18
USAT Pete O'Brien 45-19
ESPN Wickersham 45-19
FOX Schrager 44-20
ESPN Accuscore 44-20
ESPN Schefter 44-20
USAT Tom Pedulla 44-20
USAT Jon Saraceno 43-21
PFT Rosenthal 43-21
USAT Nate Davis 43-21
ESPN Allen 42-22
USAT Jarrett Bell 42-22
USAT Jim Corbett 42-22
USAT Gary Mihoces 41-23
PFT Florio 41-23
ESPN Mortensen 40-24
USAT Robert Klemko 40-24

Week 5 Preview:

Last week was our first losing week ATS but that’s how it goes in the forecasting game. It was a bit of a surprise to see Indianapolis play so well in Tampa on Monday night. Everyone was waiting (and waiting) to see the Bucs explode but it never happened. It was strange to see Curtis Painter set the record for the longest touchdown pass in the Peyton Manning Era, but unlike prior occasions, Painter looked every bit the cool professional out there on Monday night. Indy (already decimated on defense) took another cruel hit with Eric Foster’s gruesome ankle injury. They also suffered injuries on the O-Line with Castonzo and Ijalana going out with leg injuries.

The second quarter of the NFL season opens this week and with it, the onset of the dreaded bye weeks. There is no more miserable and forlorn a week than the one in which your favorite team has off. This week’s bye teams are the Ravens, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis and Washington.

At Indianapolis -2.5 Kansas City 38

The Chiefs attempt to work their way back to respectability as the travel to Indy. There are so many injured players on both of these teams that it’s a wonder that there are enough players on both sides to even have a game. Indy has three starters on defense who are out and also two starters on the O-Line who went out with injuries on Monday night. The Chiefs’ best players on offense and defense are out for the season. The Chiefs’ defense has played well in back-to-back weeks so it’ll be interesting to see if they can prevail on the road. Indianapolis played on Monday night in Tampa and gave the Bucs a real hard time before losing by a touchdown late in the game. Give Indy a lot of credit as they fought hard without three of their regular starters on defense. This week, all that hard work pays off in a victory.

Projected Final Score: Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 17

At Minnesota -3.5 Arizona 43

The winless Vikings return home to the BaggieDome for a date with the Cardinals, who have to feel robbed after a controversial call in their game against the Giants. The punchless Vikings put up only 17 points in KC last week yet Coach Frazier is sticking with McNabb. This is a winnable game for the Vikes if they stick to the ground game as the Cards have a middle-of-the-pack rush defense. And if McNabb (somehow) gets hot, he could have some success against Arizona’s 26th-rated pass defense. The Cardinals are looking up at San Francisco in the NFC West and find themselves already playing catch-up in Week 5. A loss here could put them in an intractable hole. Chris Wells may be looking to get some traction on the ground but the Vikes’ rush defense (#5) has been tough so far. The Vikes’ pass defense is 28th so far and that means Kolb will be looking for Fitzgerald early and often.

Projected Final Score: Minnesota 24, Arizona 21

Philadelphia -3.5 At Buffalo 48.5

So far, the “dream” has been a nightmare for the Eagles as they blew a 20-point lead against the ‘Niners and their kicker hooked two easy attempts. The Bills (still not being taken seriously by the Vegas Boys) will be looking to rebound from that last-second loss against Cincinnati. If the Eagles continue to foster championship aspirations, games such as these are must-win. We’ll know more this week whether the Bills’ fast start was the real thing or a mirage.

Projected Final Score: Philadelphia 27, Buffalo 21

At Houston -6.5 Oakland 50.5

Even though the Raiders put up approximately 500 yards of offense in the home loss to New England, over 100 yards came in garbage time. The Raiders’ defense didn’t have much of an answer for Brady (or the running game) last week and Campbell and the offense committed key turnovers. The Raiders’ defense lacked discipline, which isn’t unusual but were paper thin and didn’t mount much of a pass rush. The Texans are coming off a satisfying win over Pittsburgh and are looking to put the hammer down this week. But Andre Johnson is out for the next month with a hamstring injury and it’ll take a total team effort just to duplicate Johnson’s production. Arian Foster and Ben Tate will be keys to the offense as they will look to punch holes in the Raiders’ line.

Projected Final Score: Houston 27, Oakland 21

New Orleans -6.5 At Carolina 52

Cam Newton had another big day last week passing for almost 400 yards in the loss to the Bears. Can you imagine just how good the Panthers will be when he hits his prime and they build a team around him? This week, the League’s second and third rated offenses go head-to-head. Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense had a fairly quiet day in Jacksonville and are working toward a better effort against a divisional rival. Through four games, the Panthers’ pass defense is ranked 6th at 203 yards/game. While that’s impressive, they have yet to deal with Brees so far.

Projected Final Score: New Orleans 31, Carolina 24

At Jacksonville -2.5 Cincinnati 36

The Jags held New Orleans to only 23 points last week. But once again, their offense had no punch. After four weeks, they’re 31st in total offense. This week, they face off against a Bengals’ team that knocked Buffalo from the ranks of the unbeaten with a last-second field goal. Through four weeks, the Bengals have the NFL’s top-rated defense. Where Andy Dalton has adjusted quickly to the pro game, Blaine Gabbert was thrown into the fire probably too soon. People are still shaking their heads over Garrard’s abrupt dismissal.

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati 23, Jacksonville 16

At Pittsburgh -8.5 Tennessee 39.5

The early line (-8) was a bit surprising considering Rothliesberger’s bad ankle and that the Titans had a dominant road win against the Browns. Something seems amiss with the Steelers so far. Maybe it’s that “Super Bowl Loser” hangover season that most championship game losing teams go through the following year.
Although the Steelers rank second in total defense, they will be without Harrison who suffered an orbital bone fracture and will be out of the lineup for at least this week. The Titans have already beaten the likes of the Ravens, who toyed with the Steelers in Week 1. This could be the week in which Chris Johnson breaks out of his funk. The Titans are 7th in total defense so far and certainly don’t intend to be pushed around. The Steelers’ O-Line is a mess and the Titans will be looking to harass Big Ben all day long.

Projected Final Score: Pittsburgh 23, Tennessee 21

At NY Giants -9.5 Seattle 41.5

The G-Men return home after pulling one out of the fire against the Cardinals. They were the beneficiaries of an obscure rule when Victor Cruz went down without having been tackled and left a live ball on the field. The Cardinals defenders pounced on the ball but were denied possession after the referees cited a rule that made it a dead ball. Moments later, Manning hit Hakeem Nicks with the winning touchdown. This week, they draw a cupcake with Seattle coming to town. The Seahawks nearly came back to beat Atlanta last week with Tarvaris Jackson having his best game as a pro. But everytime they travel east, generally bad things happen.

Projected Final Score: NY Giants 27, Seattle 16

At San Francisco -2.5 Tampa Bay 41.5

You have to love how Coach Harbaugh has injected new life into the ‘Niners and how the team has performed under his leadership. The team is coming off of two impressive wins on the road and it finally appears that Alex Smith can be trusted as a starting quarterback. We shall see if Smith can combine with Frank Gore to provide a balanced attack. The Bucs travel west after having one less day to prepare. Both defenses are similar in performance (rated 17th and 20th respectively). Even though the Bucs beat Indy by a touchdown, it was a lackluster effort. Indy played them tough against the run and the Bucs’ defense allowed two long touchdowns by Garçon. On the second touchdown the lack of tackling was embarrassing. In terms of who “needs” this game more, it’s Tampa Bay, as they can’t afford to lose ground with the Saints and Falcons.

Projected Final Score: San Francisco 23, Tampa Bay 20

At New England -9.5 NY Jets 50

The Pats may have won in Oakland but, man oh man, is that defense is pretty bad (rated 32nd). Sooner or later, the present offense/defense dichotomy is going to burn the Patriots. It’s unrealistic that Tommy Boy will throw for over 400 yards every time out. If the Patriots presumably harbor playoff hopes the defense needs to step up starting this week. Both teams suffered significant injuries on defense last week as Jerod Mayo went down with an MCL sprain and the Jets lost Bryan Thomas for the season with an Achilles injury. The Jets (and particularly Mark Sanchez) put forth a horrible effort against the Ravens on Sunday night. The Jets’ offense basically handed the ball over to the Ravens’ defense, which capitalized on every turnover. Brady had a decent outing in Oakland as they were able to utilize the run with some effectiveness and had a nice, balanced attack. The Jets are 8th in total defense and this is an ancient rivalry game so don’t look for a 45-3 blowout as occurred last year in Foxboro. Coach Rex knows how to beat the Patriots. He will “ground and pound” and, with Mayo out of the lineup, may have some success against the Patriots’ putrid defense.

Projected Final Score: New England 27, NY Jets 24

San Diego -4.5 At Denver 48

The Broncos return home for an old-time AFL West showdown with San Diego. The Chargers had another decent, economical win over Miami but have yet to bowl anyone over with their allegedly high-powered offense. Gates remains injured and he’s been Rivers’ primary short yardage target. But the Chargers’ defense has been stout through four weeks, ranking 6th overall. The Broncos were steamrolled by the Packers and will be looking to settle down to play much better this week. Once more, Orton and the offense will have their work cut out as the Chargers’ defense is a tough nut to crack.

Projected Final Score: San Diego 27, Denver 20

Green Bay -6.5 At Atlanta 53.5

Kudos to the schedule maker for saving this game for last on Sunday. The unstoppable Packers travel to the Georgia Dome to face a Falcons’ team that’s excellent whenever they’re playing at home. The Pack basically toyed with Denver at home last week but know they’re in for a much tougher fight this week. True to form, the Falcons struggled in Seattle as they blew a big lead only to survive by a whisker.

Projected Final Score: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 24

Monday Night Preview:

At Detroit -6.5 Chicago 47

Can you imagine what the atmosphere will be in Detroit on Monday night? When was the last time the Lions hosted a Monday night game? Right now, the 4-0 Lions have to be the hottest story in the NFL. Every week, it seems like they fall behind by impossible deficits only to roar (no pun intended) back to victory. Last week in Dallas, the Cowboys had a huge lead in the third quarter and once more the Lions came back to win. This game will be a huge test as the Bears’ defense should arrive in ill humor. The Bears’ O-Line remains a bit of a mess and that has to have Suh and the defense salivating at the prospect of causing Jay Cutler some serious pain.

Projected Final Score: Detroit 27, Chicago 20