Week 4 Review/Week 5 Preview:

For the Week/Season:
v. W/L: (6-8)/(32-30)
v. ATS: (3-11)/(27-33-2)
v. Aggregate:(9-5)/(35-27)

ATS v. The Loyal Opposition:

CBS-Brinson 32-27-3
Walter Football 32-28-2
FOXSports Peter Schrager 33-29-0
ESPN Bill Simmons 31-28-3
CHFF: 31-27-0
CBS-Richard 30-29-3
USA Pete O’Brien 30-28-4
CSNNE Rich Levine 28-31-2
Postcards From Nowhere: 27-33-2
CBS-Katzowitz 26-33-3
CBS-Prisco 24-35-3
CBS-Judge 24-35-3

Weekly v. W/L v. PFT, ESPN NFL Experts & USA Today Analysts:

PFT-Rosenthal 43-19
PFT-Florio 41-21
Mortensen (ESPN) 41-21
Schlereth (ESPN) 38-24
Pete O'Brien (USAT) 38-24
Gary Mihoces (USAT) 38-24
Sean Leahy (USAT) 38-24
Jim Corbett (USAT) 37-25
Nate Davis (USAT) 37-25
CHFF: 37-24
Hoge (ESPN) 36-26
Jon Saraceno (USAT) 36-26
Schefter (ESPN) 35-27
Accuscore (ESPN) 37-25
Golic (ESPN) 35-27
Pick 'em (ESPN) 35-27
Tom Pedulla (USAT) 33-29
Jarrett Bell (USAT) 33-29
Wickersham (ESPN) 33-29
Postcards From Nowhere: 32-30
Allen (ESPN) 32-30

Eatin' Crow Time:

There is no emptier week in football season than the one in which your team has the bye. It’s certainly good for the players as they get a few days off and their first taste of R & R since camps opened in late July, but for the fans that live and breathe for football on Sunday the absence is palpable. The Patriots are off this week, so fans of the team will either have to watch other games or maybe get outside and enjoy an early autumn day. Also off this week are Miami, Pittsburgh and Seattle.

Randy Moss Trade: We will discuss this in greater detail as part of the regular weekly post. Needless to say, it livened up what would’ve otherwise a dull week around here.

OK, Week 4 was our absolutely worst week ATS in five years. Our performance resembled the Dolphins’ second half on Monday night. What went wrong? We bit like suckers on the big spreads with the Saints and the Packers. We should’ve also taken into account that the Jaguars always play well against Peyton Manning and Indianapolis at home. Every week, there’s always a new wrinkle or an injury (e.g., Vick) that changes the outcome. That’s why the Vegas Boys live in marble palaces, and why we constantly advise against wagering on the outcome of football games. Doing this for the fun of it is enough, even on those weeks when the predicted outcomes fail as miserably as last week’s. Caveat emptor: there are some really horrid matchups on the docket for this week.

Week 5 Preview:

At Baltimore -7 Denver 38.5

The Broncos had a terrific road win in Nashville last week but this week’s tilt at M&T will be a different animal altogether. There will be no Knowshown again this week and Orton has to face the top pass defense in the game and he’s going to struggle hitting his targets and avoid the rush. The Ravens’ offense still runs hot and cold. Ray Rice should be back at 100% but Flacco has had trouble finding all of those great targets. The Ravens should win, but it’ll probably be close.

Projected Final Score: Ravens 21, Denver 17

Jacksonville -1 At Buffalo 41

The Bills are coming off a humiliating 38-14 defeat at the hands of the Jets last week and now have to face a Jacksonville team that won at home in dramatic fashion against Indianapolis. A trip to Buffalo after an emotional win may lead to a letdown for a team defined by inconsistency. The Bills finally had enough of head-case Marshawn Lynch and peddled him off to Seattle on Tuesday for a couple of mid/low picks next year. With Spiller and Fred Jackson, running the ball is not the Bills’ problem. The inability to stop opposing offenses is. Terrence McGee is out of the lineup this week and his absence really hurts Buffalo’s secondary. The Jaguars are never an easy team to figure. Every week, David Garrard’s effectiveness is an issue. Last week, the Good Garrard showed up. This week, who knows? The Jags dispatched their third-string quarterback and Trent Edwards moves one step up the ladder. If Garrard continues his Jekyll/Hyde style of play, Edwards will replace him quickly. Del Rio’s seat is still warm and he can’t allow his team to revert to poor play. Edwards would love nothing better than to burn his old team this week, but chances of that happening are unlikely. At some point, the Bills have to win a game, right? This week is as good as any.

Projected Final Score: Buffalo 23, Jacksonville 21

At Indianapolis -8.5 Kansas City 44

The unlikely 3-0 Foxboro West Chiefs come to a 2-2 Indy team that is undoubtedly quite angry over how they lost in Jacksonville last week. Peyton Manning ought to have the same success against the Chiefs that he had against Jacksonville, though even an offense as pedestrian as KC’s may be able to move the chains against Indy’s so-so run defense. As long as the Chiefs don’t have to rely on Cassel to move the ball and lean on Jamaal Charles and the special teams, they have a chance of staying in the game. Their red zone offense still leaves a lot to be desired. However, if Manning has a hot start and the Chiefs have to play catch-up it could be a long afternoon for the red and white.

Projected Final Score: Indianapolis 27, Kansas City 21

At Detroit -3 St. Louis 42.5

It’s great to see Honolulu Blue get the favorite’s status this week against the 2-2 Rams, as they’ve been competitive for the most part in their four losses. St. Louis has also been competitive in their road losses, but something has to give for the Lions. Coach Schwartz has made it clear that being “competitive” isn’t good enough. It’s time to put up some “W’s”. This game presents a great opportunity to do just that, though this week’s injury report is rather long with eight questionables. The Rams have played well in their two home wins and it looks like Chris Long is turning into the beast that they predicted him to be when he was drafted #2 overall a couple of years ago. Sam Bradford is going to be a terrific NFL quarterback sooner rather than later and ought to move the chains against a woeful Lions’ secondary. But after playing their hearts out and losing, the Lions will play with intensity and (for a change) come out on top this time.

Projected Final Score: Detroit 21, St. Louis 20

Atlanta -3 At Cleveland 41

The Browns had a terrific home win against Cincinnati last week and are looking to keep the ball rolling against an Atlanta team that barely squeaked by the 49’ers on a last-second field goal. If they want to maintain their lead in the NFC South, they need to play much better offensively. Luckily for Matt Ryan, the Browns’ pass defense is awful and he and Roddy White should have a productive afternoon. Peyton Hillis has played extremely well for Cleveland but he’s questionable with a thigh injury for this week. ManGenius has announced that Delhomme will be expected to start. Does this bode well for the Browns? Until such time as Delhomme proves capable of getting through a game (a) in one piece; and (b) without throwing four interceptions, we’re just not buyin’.

Projected Final Score: Atlanta 24, Cleveland 20

At Cincinnati -6.5 Tampa Bay 37.5

Just when you think the Bengals have turned a corner, they revert to the Bungles once more. One week, they’re awful and then they seem to rebound, Losing to a divisional opponent on the road isn’t entirely unexpected but contending teams do not crumble against bad ones. This week, they return home and ought to be motivated to succeed against a young and inexperienced team. But they’re banged up some on defense. The Bucs had the first-week bye and will be rested and rarin’ to go but there are a lot of growing pains that Coach Morris’ team needs to endure (especially on defense) before the Bucs can contend with the big dogs.

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati 24, Tampa Bay 13

Chicago -2.5 At Carolina 35.5

Things didn’t go so well for the Bears last week as Jay Cutler was whipped to the turf, suffered a concussion and the G-Men played their best game of the year. On Thursday, the Bears announced that Todd Collins would start this game. Julius Peppers returns to his old stomping grounds, but the Panthers hardly resemble the team from which he departed. Steve Smith is out of the lineup for the next few weeks with a high ankle sprain, leaving Jimmy Clausen with two running backs and a whole lotta nothin’. Chicago is undoubtedly looking to rebound from a really poor outing but without Cutler on Sunday it’s difficult to predict how well the Bears and their porous offensive line will perform.

Projected Final Score: Chicago 14, Carolina 13

Green Bay -2.5 At Washington 44

The ‘Skins will be missing Portis for the next six weeks (maybe for good) after a serious groin tear in the win over Philly last week and Ryan Torain will get Portis’ carries. The Packers also have a veritable laundry list of questionables on defense this week. McNabb had a very nice return to his old stomping grounds, and kudos to the Eagles’ fans who treated him warmly on his arrival. The ‘Skins had a hot start last week and rode it out for the win. But they’re yet to be regarded as models of consistency this year. This week will be a tough test for Washington, as the underachieving Packers come to the DC looking to get their attack firing on all cylinders. Both teams have secondary issues and the Pack will now be without LB Nick Barnett, who’s out for the year with a wrist injury.

Projected Final Score: Green Bay 24, Washington 21

At Houston -3 NY Giants 47.5

Which Giant team will show up on Sunday? The one that dominated the Panthers and the Bears, or the one that looked so inept against the Titans and Indianapolis? The Texans rebounded from their loss to the Cowboys with a good showing in Oakland last week but that pass defense is still atrocious. Eli Manning is still an enigma, though he should have a shot to move the chains this week. The key is how well the Texans’ O-Line performs. If they allow the Giants pass rush to play as well as they did last Sunday, Schaub will need to put his head in swivel mode. Andre Johnson may or may not play, which hampers the offense but the Texans still have Arian Foster to pound the rock, something they’ll need to use successfully to keep the defense honest.

Projected Final Score: Houston 27, NY Giants 21

New Orleans -6.5 At Arizona 45.5

In last year’s playoffs, the Saints hastened Kurt Warner’s retirement by thrashing him and the Cardinals soundly. Since then, the Cards have suffered serious personnel losses and the Saints are having a Super Bowl hangover year. Last week, they needed a last-second field goal to prevail over winless San Francisco. In Arizona, it didn’t take long for Coach Whisenhunt to determine that Derek Anderson was not the answer and the reins have been handed over to rookie UDFA Max Hall, who proved his ability to move the chains during his BYU days. Whether the Cards wish to admit it or not, it’s time to strip away any pretense of being a contender (though in the NFC West anything is possible) and begin the process of finding a quarterback around whom they can rebuild. Give Hall a chance to see if he can perform at a high level. Steve Breaston will be out of the lineup and that makes Hall’s task all the more difficult. Those Cardinal veterans who were part of the playoff shellacking probably have a very bitter taste in their mouths over how badly they were humiliated and will be highly motivated before their home crowd to atone. The Saints will be without Bush and Pierre Thomas and Brees needs to step up and play well.

Projected Final Score: New Orleans 31, Arizona 20

San Diego -6 At Oakland 44.5

Last week, the Chargers torched Arizona at home 41-10. The Chargers always seem to play well at home (except in crunch time) but have played listless football on the road, losing twice. This week they travel up the coast to the Mausoleum, where the Raiders generally play them tough, as old AFL West rivals generally do, but there won’t be too many on hand to cheer on the Black & Silver. (The reprobates still can’t get a weekend pass from the pen). Darren McFadden is out, leaving the oft-injured Michael Bush to get the bulk of the carries on Sunday. When the Raiders played Arizona two weeks ago, they lost by only a point and last week, they lost to Houston but were not overwhelmed. They’ve only been blown out of one game, and that was in Week 1. The Chargers ought to blow the doors off the Raiders, but Oakland finds a way to remain competitive.

Projected Final Score: San Diego 27, Oakland 24

At Dallas -6.5 Tennessee 41.5

The 1-2 Cowboys are coming off a bye and are looking to stomp the Titans and get on a nice roll moving toward the playoffs. So far, Tennessee has been up one week, down the next. The script calls for an “up” week. Romo ought to have success spreading the ball around, but there’s a question whether Dallas will be sufficiently motivated this week when they have a big game against Minnesota next week. Through four weeks, Chris Johnson has yet to have a breakout game and could be due to explode at any time. The Cowboys should win, but there’s some room for doubt.

Projected Final Score: Dallas 27, Tennessee 23

At San Francisco -3 Philadelphia 38

SNF takes us to the Candlestick where the winless ‘Niners look to move into the positive for their beleaguered Coach. If they fail to win this game, one can only speculate how long the incompetent owner will wait before pulling the trigger on a coaching change. Vick is definitely out of this one after getting squeezed between two defenders last week and suffering rib cartilage damage. That’ll take some time to heal. In the meantime, Kevin Kolb is the new/old starter until Vick returns or Reid changes his mind again. No one could blame Kolb for the Eagles’ dismal performance last week as he came into the game without any preparation. San Francisco’s offense is brutal and sadly, it appears that Alex Smith will not live up to his #1 overall selection billing. This is a game that could spark the ‘Niners as they head into an easy part of their schedule. Time is running out for the ‘Niners.

Projected Final Score: San Francisco 23, Philadelphia 17