Week 3 Review/Week 4 Preview:

For the Week/Season:
v. W/L: (9-7)/(26-22)
v. ATS: (9-7)/(24-22-2)
v. Aggregate:(8-8)/(26-22)

ATS v. The Loyal Opposition:

CBS-Brinson 26-19-3
CBS-Judge 26-19-3
CHFF: 26-18-0
FOXSports Peter Schrager 26-22-0
ESPN Bill Simmons 25-20-3
Walter Football 25-21-2
Postcards From Nowhere: 24-22-2
USA Pete O’Brien 23-21-4
CBS-Richard 23-22-3
CBS-Katzowitz 21-24-3
CSNNE Rich Levine 20-25-2
CBS-Prisco 18-27-3

Weekly v. W/L v. PFT, ESPN NFL Experts & USA Today Analysts:

PFT-Rosenthal 33-15
PFT-Florio 32-16
Mortensen (ESPN) 32-16
Schlereth (ESPN) 30-18
Nate Davis (USAT) 30-18
Pete O'Brien (USAT) 29-19
Gary Mihoces (USAT) 29-19
Accuscore (ESPN) 29-19
CHFF: 29-18-0
Pick 'em (ESPN) 28-20
Hoge (ESPN) 28-20
Sean Leahy (USAT) 28-20
Jim Corbett (USAT) 28-20
Jon Saraceno (USAT) 27-21
Skip Wood (USAT) 26-22
Postcards From Nowhere: 26-22
Golic (ESPN) 26-22
Tom Pedulla (USAT) 26-22
Allen (ESPN) 25-23
Schefter (ESPN) 25-23
Jarrett Bell (USAT) 24-24
Wickersham (ESPN) 23-25

Week 4 begins the dreaded "Bye Week" portion of the calendar for the next seven weeks. The week in which your team has the bye has to be one of the emptiest weekends of the year. For Patriots’ fans this is a tough stretch as the team plays only once until October 17th. This week’s lucky winners are Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

Week 3 Notes:

Green Bay played an awful and undisciplined game (18 penalties!) on Monday night and deserved to lose. Heading into this week, there are a couple of teams who were expected to contend and now find themselves in “must win” territory, which sounds odd for the first week in October. But the heat is on for the 49’ers and the Giants because if they both lose this weekend, they’ll find themselves in a pretty deep hole.

At Tennessee -6.5 Denver 41.5

The Titans won ugly in the New Meadowlands on Sunday, but they’ll take it. Denver’s Kyle Orton passed for 475 yards against Indy, but the Broncos only managed 13 points. After three weeks, the Broncos lead the league in passing offense but Moreno’s questionable and we saw last week how Maroney’s debut in Denver mirrored his Patriots’ tenure. This week, they hit the road and have to contend with a very tough Titan defense that is in the top 5 in defending the pass. Tennessee’s offense has been nothing to write home about so far but Chris Johnson is due for a big game. Look for the Titans’ D to shut down Orton.

Projected Final Score: Tennessee 24. Denver 16

At Pittsburgh -1.5 Baltimore 34.5

This should be the best matchup that Sunday has to offer. Last week, the Steelers put up 38 points against a young Tampa Bay team, proving that the offense is capable of moving the ball without Big Ben. They’re not going to match that total against the NFL’s top rated defense. However, the Ravens had a little bit of a scare with the Browns as Peyton Hillis carried for 144 yards, which is troublesome considering how well their run defense usually functions. Ray Rice has a banged-up knee and his availability may be limited this week. McGahee may be a very good runner, but the Ravens heavily rely on Rice in the power running attack. The Steelers are going to rely on pounding the rock and ought to have a measure of success this week.

Projected Final Score: Pittsburgh 23, Ravens 20

Cincinnati -3.5 At Cleveland 37.5

This is going to be a tough game, and a highly important game for Cleveland as if they lose here, they may spiral down the drain. The 0-3 Browns played well on the road last week and are looking to continue in the positive against a Bengals’ offense that cannot yet be fully trusted. The Bengals coming off a fairly easy win against a bad Carolina team and may be ripe for the picking by their hated rival. Carson Palmer (71.3 rating) has underwhelmed so far but over last two games the Bengals have played inspired defense. Delhomme is probable for this week and Hillis can expect a lot of carries coming off his performance last week. If the Browns could put up 17 against the Ravens, why can’t they do the same this week?

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati 21, Cleveland 20

At Green Bay -14.5 Detroit 45.5

The Packers ought to hang their heads in shame after Monday night’s debacle in Chicago. That was a winnable game but stupid penalties and a key fourth quarter turnover doomed their chances. Coach McCarthy’s review of the game film with his team ought to be a painful adventure. He will whip their asses getting ready for this week. What can we say about the Lions? The growing pains continue, especially on defense but they’re headed for another last-place finish in the NFC North. This week, Jahvid Best and Louis Delmas are questionable, which makes the task of keeping up with the Packers even more difficult. The talent level simply isn’t there and they will be pummeled by a Packer crew looking to right themselves after an abominable performance. The 14 ½ is an insult to the Lions and quite frankly, after last week, the Packers haven’t performed well enough to justify the spread.

Projected Final Score: Green Bay 31, Detroit 14

At New Orleans -13.5 Carolina 44.5

Who will be the Saints’ kicker this week? It’s tough to pin the blame on a team’s defeat on one guy’s shoulders (or foot, in this case), but Hartley’s overall performance this year has left much to be desired. During the week, Drew Brees was spotted wearing a knee brace, though the team claims that he’s 100% for Sunday. Now that the Falcons have served notice that they’re ready to contend for a playoff shot, the Saints really need to buckle down and play like a championship team. Right now, the Saints are dead last in rushing the football, making them a pass-reliant offense. Luckily for them, 0-3 Carolina comes to the Superdome this week. Jimmy Clausen was thrown to the wolves in his NFL starting debut last week, and coming into the crazy atmosphere of the Superdome is a daunting prospect, as the crowd will make it very hard to think. The Panthers need to get the Williams/Stewart run combo untracked. If they have success running the ball, they can keep it somewhat close. Maybe this is the week that the Saints break out of their funk. Two touchdown spreads are generally reserved for teams that have a current track record of performing well, not simply on reputation. The Saints’ run defense is presently 30th so look for Clausen to do a lot of handing off.

Projected Final Score: New Orleans 27, Carolina 13

At Atlanta -6.5 San Francisco 42

The chaos continues unabated for the 49’ers as they fired OC Jimmy Raye after last week’s dismal loss to the Chiefs. If the ‘Niners’ offense can’t get untracked under such a wise and talented coach like Raye, how can anyone reasonably expect his replacement to fare better? One gets the sense that the clouds of doom are encircling Coach Singletary, which may not be entirely fair yet with all of the dysfunction from ownership down, is not entirely unexpected. The Falcons are coming off of a huge (and extremely lucky) OT win in New Orleans last week. They played well on both sides of the ball and a letdown after such an emotional win may be in the cards. But they now have an opportunity to put the pedal to the metal in the NFC South and have a lot of incentive to play their best. However desperate they may be, the ‘Niners have completely stunk on the road so far and nothing in their prior road losses has given any indication that things are about to change.

Projected Final Score: Atlanta 27, San Francisco 14

Seattle -1.5 At St. Louis 38.5

Projected Final Score: We know that the Seahawks are practically invincible at home (well, sort of). Last week, Philip Rivers torched the ‘Hawks secondary but couldn’t put the ball in the end zone when it mattered most. Leon Washington also had the game of his career last week, which was wonderful to see after breaking his leg last year. This is an intriguing matchup as it looks like the Rams are no longer willing to play the role of doormat. Bradford won his first game as a starter against a supposedly better team and they have a real shot to go to .500 this week. This is one of those “flip a coin” sort of games. True, the Rams did win at home last week and but for the outstanding special teams play. Seattle could’ve lost. Right now, Seattle has the better defense.

Projected Final Score: Seattle 23, St. Louis 21

NY Jets -5 At Buffalo 37

After starting out with three quality opponents, the Jets appear to get a break this week as they travel to meet the 0-3 Bills. Even though the game looks like a mismatch, it is an AFC East rivalry and the Bills won’t roll over. They played Miami very tough in Week 1 Buffalo’s defense is a mess this week as there are injuries to key starters and the talent level just isn’t there. The Jets had another impressive win in Miami but it will be a real test to see how well they can play against Buffalo. The Bills’ offense had a pretty good day in Foxboro and, with the release of Trent Edwards, it’s (Harvard’s Own) Ryan Fitzpatrick’s show from here on out. There’s no doubt that the Bills offense picked up a lot of confidence last week playing against a poor Patriots’ defense, but this week he’s facing a different animal entirely.

Projected Final Score: NY Jets 24, Buffalo 17

Indianapolis -7.5 At Jacksonville 46.5

Could things get any worse for the fans in Jacksonville? They sold out the game last week and then the team was completely humiliated by the Eagles. For every one game that David Garrard plays well, he comes up with five stinkers in a row. He was brutal, the team was brutal; the Jaguars have no imagination whatsoever in their offensive game plan. The Jags picked up Trent Edwards on waivers from Buffalo and he’ll be breathing down Garrard’s neck for playing time in a couple of weeks. The Indy game at home is always the biggest divisional rivalry game of the year for Jacksonville. Some years, they come out and play really well as happened in Week 14 last year when they lost 35-31. Last week, the mile high air did not phase Peyton Manning. Even the fact that a couple of his regular wideouts were out didn’t slow down the attack. Why should brutal heat and humidity?

Projected Final Score: Indianapolis 31, Jacksonville 20

Houston -3.5 At Oakland 43.5

We sort of figured that the Texans were going to lose last week against a desperate Dallas team. It was a non-conference game that was more or less a throw away in the standings. Now that a bad game is out of their system it’s time to move in the positive once more. What better opponent to face than the Raiders to get untracked? The problems are many for the Texans as the pass defense is terrible and Andre Johnson is banged up. Last week, the Raiders stole defeat from the jaws of victory when Janikowski missed a chip shot field goal that his grandmother could’ve probably knocked through. They played well enough to beat the Cardinals on the road, why shouldn’t they be able to play well at home? Bruce Gradkowski is not going to set thew world on fire but ought to be able to move the chains. For all of their problems in pass defense the Texans do have a top notch run defense and Cushing returns to the team after his suspension. McFadden is going to have difficulty gaining traction, so Gradkowski is going to have to air it out against a poor pass defense. This is a game to avoid like the plague.

Projected Final Score: Houston 23, Oakland 20

At San Diego -8.5 Arizona 46

Every year like clockwork the Chargers struggle coming out of the gate before righting the ship and making a playoff run. Last week in Seattle, they moved the ball up and down the field but had a lot of trouble pushing it across the goal line. What else is new? The Chargers stink in September. They not only miss Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill but Kassim Osgood on special teams as well. Ryan Mathews should be 100% for this game and his presence will keep the Cards honest against the pass. This week, the Cardinals come to town fresh off a fortuitous home win with Oakland. Coach Whisenhunt is discovering that Derek Anderson is “meh” personified. The Cards will be shorthanded without Steve Breaston for the next few weeks, as he’s out with knee surgery. Without a full offensive compliment, the Cards will have a long afternoon.

Projected Final Score: San Diego 30, Arizona 17

At Philadelphia -6.5 Washington 42.5

If Donovan McNabb is greeted with anything less than thunderous applause by the Philly crowd, then they’re even worse than Americans believe. After everything he brought to the Eagles for so long, to boo McNabb would be worse than when they booed Santa Claus. The Eagles have ridden the hot hand of Michael Vick, but he lacks McNabb’s pedigree. He can play great for a week or two before inconsistency sets in. When the Redskins defeated Dallas in Week 1, people took notice and thought that Shanahan’s program was going to take the league by storm. In the past two weeks, those lofty expectations have been dampened after a couple of lackluster defeats. The ’Skins defense has been atrocious in the past two weeks, so if Vick can play reasonably well, he ought to be successful. McNabb will be extremely motivated and will probably play well in his return to Philadelphia, but the Eagles presently have a dynamic attack and should prevail by a touchdown.

Projected Final Score: Philadelphia 27, Washington 20

At NY Giants -4.5 Chicago 43.5

There is no way that the Giants should be favored here. In successive weeks, the Giants have gone from contenders to the NFL’s biggest underachievers. Maybe the players have tuned out Coach Coughlin because they’re not playing like a team that bears his stamp. They were humiliated two weeks ago in Indy and played a bad game at home against the Titans filled with turnovers and penalties. The New York media is already clamoring for Coughlin’s hide (as if a coaching change at this point would fix the problem). If they don’t come through this week, there will be a big stink in Jersey. The 3-0 Bears come to the New Meadowlands on the heels of a big Monday night home win against the Pack, but let’s be honest, the Packers played an undisciplined game and the Bears capitalized on the stupid penalties and turnovers. Still, a win is a win and the Bears sit atop the NFC North. Sorry, but Jay Cutler does not engender much confidence around here. He threw a critical pick that would’ve given Green Bay the win were it not for a stupid penalty. If the G-Men fall here, they’ll be looking to fight over last place with the Redskins.

Projected Final Score: Chicago 23, NY Giants 20