Super Bowl XLIV Preview

Indianapolis -5 New Orleans 56.5

The City of New Orleans must be at a fever pitch these days, such a wonderful development for a Great American City that suffered such devastation, sorrow and misfortune just a few years ago. Their beloved Saints are in Miami, prepping for Sunday’s Championship. Most Americans are rooting for the Saints, and why not? It would be thrill if this year’s Super Bowl can match the excitement that last year’s brought though there’s a greater likelihood that it won’t. Unfortunately for Coach Payton’s crew, they have the ominous task of trying to knock off Peyton Manning and Indianapolis.

There’s a huge difference in preparing for the “Super Bowl” and the NFL Championship. While Reggie Bush and his coterie of Hollywood hangers-on were partying it up into the wee hours this week, the Indianapolis team (which has been there before and knows what to expect) were tucked in safely for the night after having broken down film all night. Let’s not forget that the Saints were outplayed in the NFC Championship and would be watching the game on TV but for (another critical) gaffe by Favre and the lucky flip of a coin. Meanwhile, in the AFC Championship, the Jets gave Indianapolis a game for about a quarter and a half before getting totally overwhelmed by Manning.

The Saints’ offense is explosive, perhaps historically so. Brees is a great quarterback and the offense is stacked and will put up their share of points on Sunday. Most of all, they need to keep Manning off the field (duh!). Brees can’t simply let it fly, but needs to have some serious production from Bush and Thomas on the ground. But it’s the Saints’ defense that’s a bit of a concern. They may have been able to successfully employ blitz packages during the playoffs, but if they rely on the same approach on Sunday, Manning will use slants and cut them to ribbons. The defense is good but they have yet to be tested by a quarterback like Manning.

Right now, Manning is playing near perfect quarterback and all of his weapons are raring to go. In the AFC Championship the Jets thought that shutting down Reggie Wayne would crimp Manning’s style. No problem, he simply found Collie, Garçon and Clark all day. The running game was also quite effective when called upon. For Coach Caldwell, Manning & Co., this trip to the Super Bowl is not about the “event”, but about preparing to play 60 minutes of disciplined football.

Much has been made in the media about Freeney’s injured ankle and whether his mobility will be limited. Freeney would still kick ass on one good wheel. Indianapolis’ defense always plays a back seat to Manning and the offense, but the fact is that they’re an aggressive and highly competent group. To win they need to contain the Saints on the ground and force Brees to rely on the passing game. They will review the NFC Championship tape and learn from the schemes the Vikings used. They have enough talent to win.

In the end, unless the Saints’ ground game can effectively chew the clock it will be Indianapolis’ night.

The heart says the Saints, the head says…

Projected Final Score: Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 27

Enjoy the game, America!