2009 NFL Preview:
Before the season starts, we begin to reacquaint ourselves with the teams after a long off-season. So the crack staff here at PFN spent the summer in the proverbial woodshed researching the teams and we’re pleased to present our annual preview for your consideration.

From the Bottom Up:

32. DETROIT: Of course, there’s nowhere to go up for the Lions. There’s a new coach, a ton of new bodies and a new system being implemented. Daunte Culpepper is behind the controls for now while #1 overall draft choice Matthew Stafford waits in the wings, which is a smart move (See: Carr, David). There won’t be a dramatic turnaround in Detroit because the Lions didn’t do much to upgrade the quality of the offensive and defensive lines. They have a nice group of linebackers in Sims, Julian Peterson and Foote, but the defensive backfield is raw. On offense, they have a decent pair of wide receivers in Bryant and Calvin Johnson and a potential franchise tight end in Brandon Pettigrew. Kevin Smith is also a very good runner, but the success of the offense hinges on the effectiveness of the line, which is a veteran group that struggled mightily in 2008. Forecast: The Lions will be far more competitive this year than last, but will still reside in the NFC North basement. Projected win total: 3-5.

31. CLEVELAND: After last year’s debacle the Browns’ ownership cleaned house with a blowtorch and brought in former Jets’ coach Eric Mangini to turn things around. Mangini was a curious choice because he didn’t exactly set the world on fire during his tenure as Jets’ coach. On top of trying to rebuild on the fly, the team had to contend with the whole Donte' Stallworth affair. So, this is a team with identity issues moving into the new year. But Stallworth’s absence is the least of Mangini’s problem. Browns’ fans wonder whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson will be the starting quarterback, but it really doesn’t matter who’s behind center due to the seemingly endless list of questions and holes on the offense. Other than Joe Thomas, the offensive line is a patch quilt of guys who have been around the block one time too many. They made a wise choice in Cal C Alex Mack to be the new anchor of the line, but the line is definitely a work in progress. Jamal Lewis is no longer the power back of years past as his 40 time can now be more accurately timed with a calendar than a stopwatch. On defense, the linebackers are more than adequate, but there’s no pash rush of which to speak. The Browns have Big Daddy to stuff the run, but those linebackers are also going to be making a ton of tackles. The defensive backfield group doesn’t feature any All-Pro caliber players, but Mangini’s acquisition of Abram Elam from the Jets was a heady move. Forecast: 4th Place in the AFC North. Projected win total: 3-5.

30. ST. LOUIS: The best offsesaon move the Rams made was the hiring of Steve Spagnuolo, the fiery DC of the Giants, as their new head coach. Over the past 50 years, coordinators from the Giants have done pretty well with head coaches’ jobs in the NFL (Lombardi, Landry, Parcells and Belichick). The Rams have been floundering for a few years now and needed a firm leader with a vision. Spagnuolo is up to the challenge. His first step will be to build a team that matches his style and ethic. He has some nice pieces with which to work in Steven Jackson, Chris Long and #1 pick Jason Smith, but there are far too many holes on both sides of the ball for this team to be competitive, even in the wide-open NFC West. Marc Bulger is an OK quarterback, but he has no targets of note to throw to, other than former Raider Ronald Curry. The interior lines still need upgrading, despite the investment of high draft choices Carriker and Barron. They did draft Jason Smith from Baylor and added Jason Brown, so at least the O-line will improve. On offense, there are no home run hitters (with the departure of Torry Holt) and the team will lean heavily on Jackson to move the chains. James Laurinaitis will add youth and stability to the linebacking corps, but the team didn’t do much to upgrade the backfield, which was routinely torched last season. Safety Oshiomogho Atogwe is the leader of the group, but there is not much quality surrounding him. This will be a year in which Spagnuolo finds out which guys buy into the program and to build a core group moving into next year. Forecast: 4th Place in the NFC West. Projected win total: 3-5.

29. OAKLAND: Once upon a time, the Silver & Black were the terror of the NFL. Now they’re a joke. As with anything in business, it starts at the top, and Mr. Davis lost his fastball years ago. It’s been long overdue for the Managing General Partner to retire. But that’s not going to happen and the once-great Raiders franchise will continue to suffer as long as Mr. Davis keeps his hands on the controls. The whole circus surrounding the team is an embarrassment. Rumors have circulated that the head coach broke the jaw of one of his assistants. They over reached badly with the selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey, the wide receiver from Maryland on the first round at #7 followed by the selection of Mike Mitchell from Ohio on the second (whom most draft “experts” penciled in as a 5th-or-6th round value). Darren McFadden is a promising running back and Justin Fargas is a tough, quality back but JaMarcus Russell still has a lot to prove (leaving the door open for Jeff Garcia to step in), and his targets are limited as Chaz Schilens is down with a broken foot. The O-line is mediocre. On defense, other than All-Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha there isn’t a lot of quality. Forecast: 3rd Place in the AFC West. Projected win total: 5-7.

28. KANSAS CITY: It's a whole new ball game in Kansas City, as the Coach Herm/Carl Peterson era came to a merciful end and ownership decided to clean house bringing in a new general manager and coach. Scott Pioli left Foxboro to take over the general manager job for the Chiefs, and he has his hands full trying to rebuild this franchise. His first hire was to bring in Arizona's offensive coordinator Todd Haley to be the new head coach. Pioli then swung a trade with New England bringing in Mike Vrabel and Matt Cassel for the Chiefs' second-round draft choice. In Vrabel, the Chiefs get a veteran leader who will provide stability to a young defense. Zach Thomas also came over from Dallas and still has a few tackles left. Asking Cassel to duplicate the feat he pulled off last year in New England may be another matter altogether. Cassel did a tremendous job filling in for Brady last year, but it should not be forgotten that weapons that he had to work with last year were far more talented than what he has been given in Kansas City. Cassel also suffered a sprained knee during the preseason and may not be ready to go by the opener. Tony Gonzalez has left town and, other than Dwayne Bowe, there’s not a lot there. If LJ can regain his prior form, then Cassel’s chances for success will only improve. On defense, the Chiefs have heavily invested high draft picks in recent years with mixed degrees of success. Last year’s #1 pick… started camp on PUP because he was too fat and out of shape. The defense is young and has a lot of potential, but that will be tested to the max. Forecast: It looks like 3rd Place in the AFC West for the Chiefs. Projected Win Total: 4-6.

27. NY JETS: Despite the inexperience at quarterback, there’s a lot to like about what the J-E-T-S have done in the offseason. Rex Ryan has taken the reins as head coach and brings a lot of experience as a defensive coordinator and great enthusiasm (“swaggalicious”) to the job. First, they signed ILB Bart Scott from the Ravens, and he will immediately upgrade the defense with his veteran All-Pro presence. Kris Jenkins was a great pick up last year and the defense is sound and tough. DE Shaun Ellis will be suspended for Week 1 and OLB Calvin Pace is out for four games, so their absences on the defense will certainly hurt. However, questions still abound regarding the development of Vernon Gholston. The offensive line features three horses in Faneca, Mangold and Ferguson, and provided the group stays healthy, they can be a force. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are quality running backs and Dustin Keller emerged last year as a promising tight end. Rookie RB Shonn Greene from Iowa is also going to get a chance to carry the ball and don’t be surprised if he proves to be a real find for the Jets. That’s all well and good, but the team’s offense needs a quarterback and some wide receivers. Mark Sanchez is slated to be the “face of the franchise”, and he very well may become a matinee idol down the line. But there will be a lot of growing pains between here and there. He is surrounded by some very good building blocks that will make his transition easier than Matthew Stafford’s. However, outside of Keller and Jerricho Cotchery, there’s no depth either at tight end or in the receiving corps. It’ll be a good year to watch a rookie head coach and quarterback develop, but there probably be a lot of bumps along the way. Forecast: 4th Place in the AFC East. Projected win total: 5-7.

26. JACKSONVILLE: Last year was an abysmal train wreck, as the team that some viewed as a dark horse contender finished up at 5-11. Coach Del Rio stayed, but there was a general purging of those players who weren’t part of the program, especially with the wide receivers. To fix one of the spots, the Jags signed Torrie Holt from St. Louis. But Coach Del Rio is a smash mouth guy, and he has the right running back in Maurice Jones-Drew to carry the freight. Fred Taylor left for New England, so Taylor will be the focal point for defenses this year. On the O-line, they drafted Eugene Monroe from Virginia and brought in veteran Tra Thomas from Philly. These two ought to help the coach further his objectives. David Garrard returns as the quarterback and he needs to improve on his mediocre performance of last year if the Jags are going anywhere this year. Garrard is one of those guys who fans either love or hate. He really hasn’t done much to justify the big contract he signed a couple of years ago and has to pick up his play considerably. On the D-line, the Jags have to demand better from Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, who really underwhelmed last year. They have a talented group of linebackers in Justin Durant, Daryl Smith and Clint Ingram, but no real depth behind the starters. The secondary is features a veteran group, led by Rashean Mathis, but this group needs to rebound from a bad year in ’08. There’s really not much exciting about the way this team plays. To win, they need to physically dominate at the line of scrimmage. They may have veterans who can do that on offense, but defensively, there’s simply too much inexperience/poor performance to feel overly optimistic about their chances this year. Forecast: 4th Place in the AFC South. Projected Win Total: 5-7.

25. SEATTLE: Speaking of train wrecks, Coach Holmgren’s swan song was nothing worth remembering as key injuries derailed what could’ve been a promising season. Coach Mora is on the job now and will bring a world of enthusiasm to what promises to be a rebuilding project in 2009. Walter Jones is down and out, perhaps for good and Hall of Fame left tackles aren’t easily replaced. Matt Hasselbeck is returning after having suffered a back injury and if healthy, he’s a very good quarterback. But Hasselbeck’s health is no longer something that should be taken for granted. He has good targets in T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson and John Carlson. At running back are Julius Jones and The Edge, so there’s enough talent to move the ball, it’s simply a question of how effective the O-Line will be without Big Walter. On defense, outside of Patrick Kerney there’s not a lot of depth on the line. They drafted LB Aaron Curry #3 overall and he should provide immediate help for Hill and Tatupu. The secondary is just OK, but it also happens to be Coach Mora’s area of strength so they will be well coached and prepared. Forecast: 3rd Place in the NFC West. Projected Win Total: 6-8.

24. TAMPA BAY: Coach Chucky was deposed after his team imploded last December, and he was replaced by assistant Raheem Morris. The new coach will have to oversee a massive rebuilding of this team before they can be competitive. The Bucs hired a new OC during the winter only to fire him before the preseason ended, so there’s some dysfunction going on down there. They drafted Josh Freeman to be the quarterback of the future, but for the present it appears as if Byron Leftwich is going to be the starter. The Bucs also snagged Derrick Ward from the Giants to be their feature back. Cadillac Williams, if healthy, will get his share of carries along with short-yardage back Earnest Graham. Warrick Dunn is gone, as is Joey Galloway, leaving only Antonio Bryant as the veteran wide out. The oft-injured Kellen Winslow came over from Cleveland to play tight end, but other than flashes, what has he proved? The O-line is a veritable bunch of unknowns and the entire defense is in a state of flux. Derrick Brooks is gone and Monte Kiffin left to be with his son in Knoxville. Ronde Barber returns, but he’s getting along in years, but the team has high hopes for OLB Quincy Black and cornerback Aqib Talib. FS Tanard Jackson has also been suspended for the first four games and his absence will really hurt, The problem on defense is the lack of a really talented defensive line. Forecast: 4th Place in the rough and tough NFC South. Projected Win Total: 4-6.

23. SAN FRANCISCO: This is the second full year of Coach Singletary’s rebuilding project, and by all accounts, he conducted a very rough, hard-hitting camp befitting his style as a player. First-round draft choice Michael Crabtree has foolishly elected to hold out, which will probably hurt his development more than the team needing him. On offense, as long as Frank Gore is healthy, the ‘Niners will be a run-first team. Gore is an elite runner who can chew up yards and clock time with the best of them. Glen Coffee from Alabama will be spelling Gore and he was a powerful back in the SEC. There was an open competition for quarterback and Shaun Hill came out as the winner against former overall #1 pick Alex Smith (who could probably benefit from a change of address). Other than the ageless Isaac Bruce, Hill’s primary targets aren’t exactly household names (Josh Morgan, etc.) but Vernon Davis has to step up this year and play like a dominating tight end. The offensive line is big and built for the run, but questions remain regarding the development of left tackle Joe Staley. Like Davis, Staley’s another high first-round pick who needs to take the next step and dominate. For the most part, the ‘Niners’ D is a good group, especially at linebacker where Patrick Willis has become one of the most dominant ILB’s in the game. He’s ably surrounded by Haralson, Spikes and Lawson. Beyond Nate Clements at one corner, the secondary is a little bit thin and the D-line is solid but not spectacular. As the ‘Niners begin to develop and adopt Singletary’s personality they ought to be a good team, but there are still too many holes for it to be this year. Forecast: 2nd Place in the NFC West. Projected Win Total: 6-7.

22. GREEN BAY: The biggest news coming out of Packerland was the hiring of Dom Capers as defensive coordinator and the implementation of a 3-4 base. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are very good corners and Capers has the makings of an aggressive front seven. On offense, Aaron Rodgers turned the corner in his development as a quarterback and he has two really good targets in Donald Driver and TE Donald Lee. The Pack needs to have a more consistent performance out of Ryan Grant to be successful. The Pack should have a good season (especially at Lambeau), better than last year anyhow, but those four games against the Bears and Vikings may prove to be too much for a young team to handle. Forecast: 3rd Place in the NFC North. Projected Win Total: 6-8.

21. DENVER: For a team that had been a model of consistency this offseason was a time of tremendous upheaval. First, Coach Shanahan was shown the door after years of meritorious service and was replaced by Belichick’s OC, Josh McDaniels. Trouble started as soon as McDaniels came to town, as he feuded with quarterback Jay Cutler, who was eventually shipped off to Chicago for Kyle Orton and a package of high draft picks. Brandon Marshall was then indefinitely suspended for behaving like a jerk after the team wouldn’t rewrite his contract. Eddie Royal is a top–notch WR and will be Orton’s primary target this year, First round pick RB Knowshon Moreno suffered a sprained knee and his availability in the early going may be a question mark. The strength of the team will be thew offensive line that boasts The two Ryans, Clady and Harris. The Broncos have always developed a great O-Line, dating back to the glory days of Elway and TD. On defense, they have one of the game’s preeminent shutdown corners in Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins came over from Philly to bring experience and passion to the defense. In the end, they play in the NFL’s weakest division and will benefit from playing Oakland and KC twice, but make no mistake, this is a rebuilding team. Forecast: 2nd Place in the AFC West. Projected Win Total: 7-9.

20. NEW ORLEANS: Everyone knows that Drew Brees will probably throw for another 5,000 yards this year, but what about the defense? Up front, Will Smith and Charles Grant will be suspended for the first four games as part of the “Star Caps” positive test, and that’s got to hurt this team terribly coming out of the gate. Jonathan Vilma is a terrific linebacker, but it takes 11 players to make a defense. There’s little depth in the secondary that was routinely blowtorched last year (at least they no longer have Jason David to kick around any more). The Saints didn’t do a whole lot to address their deficiencies on defense during the off-season. On offense, Brees has sufficient targets with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Shockey. The jury remains very much out on Reggie Bush, who needs to have a highly productive year or become labeled as a bust. The durability-challenged Bush will be adequately supplemented by Pierre Thomas and/or Mike Bell (who’s had a strong camp). The O-line is anchored by Jammal Brown, who just had sports hernia surgery and is out until the season opener, but as group have provided Brees with adequate protection. Coach Payton has his work cut out for him this year. Forecast: 3rd Place in the NFC South. Projected Win Total: 5-7.

19. HOUSTON: Some look at the wealth of young talent on this team and see a real sleeper ready to emerge out of the AFC South while others have written them off as a perennial underachiever. Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in between. Last year, Steve Slaton proved to be a revelation and Andre Johnson is one of the premier wideouts in the game. Owen Daniels is a very good tight end and the O-Line is a respectable lot. The inconsistent play of quarterback Matt Schaub is the root of the Texans’ offensive problems. One week he’s a stud, the next a dud. It’s hard to figure out this guy. On defense, they have Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans and Dunta Robinson to lead the way. All in all, the defense is a young and talented group. Maybe in another division they could make some noise, but playing in the same group with Indy and the Titans it’s a rough road to hoe. If Schaub plays consistently, there’s no doubt that this team could finish second and squeak out a Wild Card berth, but they need to put forth a more consistent effort on the field to be considered as a contender. Forecast: 3rd Place in the AFC South. Projected Win Total: 7-9.

18. BUFFALO: Coach Jauron has two of the best wideouts in the game in TO and Lee Evans, so it’s time for Trent Edwards to step up and prove that he’s more than a journeyman quarterback. The Bills traded away their best offensive lineman (Jason Peters), and there simply may not be sufficient time for this group to jell. It’s just not the best scenario to compete with a completely new line. The move to bring in TO will either be a boom-or-bust, there’s no in-between with this notorious wrecker of quarterbacks. (His stormy path through the NFL is all too well-documented to belabor here). The real test will come in November when those ferocious winds come whipping in off the lake. Marshawn Lynch has been suspended for the first three games and his presence will be sorely missed in the early going, so Fred Jackson will get the majority of the reps in Lynch’s absence and he’s not a bad option. The defense features Marcus Stroud, Leodis McKelvin, Paul Posluszny and Aaron Schobel up front, but there aren’t a lot of household names in the mix. Buffalo teams traditionally play tough and with heart and passion, but on both sides of the ball there’s a lot of potential for things to go wrong, playing in the especially competitive AFC East. If things go bad for the Bills, it could get ugly in a hurry with the toxic influence of TO poisoning the atmosphere. The entire success of a high-powered offense is contingent on the effectiveness of the newly-constituted line. Forecast: 3rd Place in the über-competitive AFC East. Projected Win Total: 7-9.

17. WASHINGTON: Leave it to Snyder and the Redskins to make the biggest splash in free agency, splurging on massive DT Albert Haynesworth, They also drafted Texas’ DE Brian Orakpo, and he projects to be a real beast on the corner. They’re more than good defensively, except on the corners where they’re somewhat thin. But the ‘Skins real problems last year were on offense, so why did Washington basically neglect any upgrade on that side of the ball. Sure, they were players in the Cutler sweepstakes but it wasn’t the wisest course of action to be aggressive in the market for a new quarterback while maintaining the old one. A lot of people “in the know” are down on Jason Campbell without having given him a full and fair opportunity. He’s inconsistent, but that’s pretty much true of any young quarterback. He has good receivers in Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El and Malcolm Kelly’s on the way up. They have a good tight end in Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis is one of the top running backs in the NFC. So people ought to give Campbell a chance (it’s not as if they’ll be fighting it out for the NFC East title this year). The ‘Skins problem is that they play in the NFC East where all the other teams are at least equal if not better. They’ll hold their own against everyone else, but those divisional games will be real croakers. Forecast: 4th Place in the NFC East. Projected Win Total: 8-9.

16. CINCINNATI: It was another lost year in Bungleland in ’08, as Carson Palmer went down with an arm injury and the team could not recover from his absence. This year, Palmer is fully recovered and things are definitely on the upswing in the Queen City. T.J. Houshmandzadeh departed for Seattle, but his will be ably replaced by Laveranues Coles. Ocho Stinko Cinco returns and will hopefully tone down his me-first act and buy into the team concept that Coach Lewis has been trying to instill. Cedric “Fumbles” Benson finally had the year that the Bears envisioned he’d when they drafted him so high. Too bad he didn’t grow up until the Bears let him go and the Bengals selected him for the waiver price. The O-line is currently in a state of flux with #1 pick Andre Smith from Alabama holding out of camp then breaking his foot in practice a day or two after signing. His injury and absence from camp will hurt his development dearly. If the line can come together as a group, Palmer has enough weapons at his disposal to make defenses around the league squirm. The Bungles’ management has started to invest in defense via the draft. They have three very good young players in Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall and Keith Rivers. They also chose Rivers’ for SC teammate Rey Malaluga on the second round, and he projects to be a big-time run stopper. Veteran safety Roy Williams came over from Dallas to bring some stability to the backfield, but it’s hard to say how much he has left in the tank. On the whole, the defense is a patchwork quilt of some nice players combined with some mediocre ones. The Bengals will be an improved lot in 2009, yet will fall short of the playoffs. Forecast: 3rd Place in the AFC North. Projected Win Total: 6-8.

15. TENNESSEE: The Titans had a very good year in ’08 and are always well coached and prepared by Jeff Fisher. They have one of the best 1-2 punches at running back with Chris Johnson and LenDale White (“Crash N’ Dash”) and Father Time (Kerry Collins) will be back at quarterback. Vince Young is rapidly approaching “bust” status, but not quite there, yet. Maybe they’re a little thin at WR, as Nate Washington came over from Pittsburgh but suffered a hamstring injury in camp and Justin Gage brings a veteran presence on the other side. Bo Scaife is a very good TE and will continue as Collins’ primary target. The offensive line is solid, anchored by Michael Roos at left tackle. So, the offense is not all that bad. On defense, however, how do the Titans replace Albert Haynesworth at DT? Tony Brown and Jason Jones combined can’t fill that hole. At linebacker, they’re solid with Bullock, Tulloch and Thornton and Cortland Finnegan has come out of nowhere to become an All-Pro corner. The rest of the secondary is pretty good as well. Forecast: Can’t expect another big year from Collins and the loss of Haynesworth has to really hurt, so it’s 3rd Place for the Nashville Boys. Projected Win Total: 8-9.

14. CAROLINA: Coach Fox’s team is always hard to figure. One week they’re contenders, the next pretenders (as was last seen in the playoffs). This has got to be a make-or-break year for Coach Fox, as he’s been there for quite a few years with only one trip to the Super Bowl. Throughout the team’s inconsistencies, they have a lot of very good players. DeAngelo Williams is one of the best running backs in the NFC and Jonathan Stewart is a terrific alternative. Jake Delhomme is a proven commodity and he has great targets in Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad. The offensive line is big and can effectively push the line of scrimmage with young guys like Kalil and Otah. On defense, they’re led by All-Pros Julius Peppers and Jon Beason, but received a major blow to the line when Maake Kemoeatu went down for the season on the first day of training camp with a torn Achilles tendon. The secondary has enough talent to get the job done on a reasonably consistent basis. The wild card with Carolina is the division in which they play. Atlanta should be competitive, Tampa Bay probably not and New Orleans, who knows? The Panthers have enough talent to win the division, it’s the maddening inconsistency that needs to change. Forecast: 1st Place in the NFC South. Projected Win Total: 9-11.

13. MIAMI: The Dolphins shocked the football world last year by winning ten more games than they had in the previous season. A lot of that had to do with the culture instilled by Parcells and Coach Sparano (not to mention that devilish Wildcat that they unleashed on unsuspecting opponents). The question is whether the team can maintain that same level of play. Chad Pennington had a terrific first year in Miami and there is a sound running back group with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. They’re a little thin at wide receiver with Ted Ginn Jr. and Greg Camarillo. The O-line is a good group and last year’s overall #1 selection Jake Long made the first of what will be a long line of trips to the Pro Bowl. He is poised to be a generational talent at left tackle. The Dolphins acquired veteran center Jake Grove from Oakland and he will ring an added veteran presence to a solid group. On defense, Jason Taylor returns after a year away with the Redskins, but he’s also coming off an injury and getting long in the tooth. Loudmouth Joey Porter and Channing Crowder are very good linebackers and Will Allen is a top-notch corner. The defense will also be blending in a number of younger players into the group. Forecast: The Dolphins will have a good year, but won’t be sneaking up on anyone this time. 2nd Place in the AFC East and maybe a Wild Card berth. Projected win Total: 9-11.

12. DALLAS: It’ll be hard to figure out the Cowboys this year, as they move into their sparkling new billion-dollar palace (the one where punts routinely bounce off the world’s largest HD scoreboard). To understand the Cowboys, one always should cut through the hype. They have a few outstanding players in Marion Barber and LB DeMarcus Ware, but there are a lot of holes on both sides of the ball and Mr. Inconsistent, Tony Romo behind the controls. They suffered two key losses in TO (fired) and Chris Canty to free agency. Tashard Choice and Felix Jones are very good complimentary backs to Barber. Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams are good receivers and they have one of the game’s best tight ends in Jason Witten, so they will score points. It’s the defensive side of the ball that will be more challenging for the Cowboys, especially in the six divisional games that will determine the winner. On paper, they’re simply nowhere as talented as Philly and the Giants. Forecast: 3rd Place in the NFC East. Projected Win Total: 8-10.

11. RAVENS: Coach Harbaugh came in and implemented a highly disciplined approach that worked quite well as the Ravens won 11 of their final 13 games. He has everyone’s attention as they attempt to build on a great season. But he’ll have to make do without DC Rex Ryan, who departed to take over the Jets. Last year, Joe Flacco came of age much sooner than the experts figured and helped to lead the Ravens to the AFC Championship. This year, the Ravens figure to be in the thick of the race all year long. He will have adequate run support with McGahee and Rice. The receiving corps is pretty good as well, with Mason, Clayton and Heap. The Ravens addressed their needs on the O-line by drafting Michael Oher from Ole Miss, and he looks like he’ll be a punishing force to contend with for a long time. But as long as Ray Lewis remains the heart and soul of the Ravens, the emphasis will be on the defensive side of the ball. Bart Scott departed for the Jets and his absence is a big blow to the defense. But there is a young, talented core group around Lewis that will ease the loss of Scott. Samari Rolle will miss up to six weeks and his presence in the backfield can’t be discounted. The Ravens are solid on both sides of the ball, but have the misfortune of playing in the same division as Pittsburgh. Forecast: Second place in the AFC North and another trip to the playoffs. Projected Win Total: 9-11.

10. ARIZONA: How does a 9-7 team that played pathetically horrible East of the Mississippi come to within a minute of winning the Super Bowl? Everything broke the Cardinals’ way in the playoffs and they nearly pulled off a historic feat. It was more than luck that brought them the NFC Championship; they played their best when it counted the most. But that was last year. Kurt Warner enters this year coming off of hip surgery and isn’t getting any younger. He has the NFL’s three best wideouts in Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston. Tim Hightower returns as the feature back and will be complimented by #1 draft choice Chris Wells. Their defense is led by safety Adrian Wilson and features DE Calais Campbell and OLB Clark Haggans. CB Dominique Foxworth-Crowmartie had a terrific rookie season, and there’s no doubt he’s well on his way to a great career. The problem with the Cardinals is that history is not on their side this year. Most Super Bowl losers fail to make the playoffs the following year, whether for hangover reasons or personnel changes. The Cardinals rode an emotional tidal wave to the Super Bowl last year, and more often than not lightning fails to strike twice. They had the benefit of playing in the league’s worst division last year but the ‘Niners and Seahawks will be a lot tougher this year. By virtue of their offensive firepower they ought to repeat as divisional champs but don’t look for much more than that. Forecast: 1st Place in the NFC West. Projected Win Total: 9-10.

9. ATLANTA: The Falcons shocked the football world last year as Matt Ryan played like a seasoned veteran in his rookie year. The question is whether they can repeat the feat this year. They made a number of moves to upgrade the defense and the acquisition of TE Tony Gonzalez from KC certainly doesn’t hurt. Ryan will benefit from Roddy White, but after that Ryan’s options through the air are limited. The Falcons have an adequate running game with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Unless Ryan has a sophomore slump, there’s no reason why the offense can’t maintain the high level of consistency. But there will be a lot of flux on the defense that ought to give Falcons’ fans pause for concern. They invested seven picks on defense including DT Peria Jerry, which suggests a high degree of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Bringing in so many new faces into the mix may affect the chemistry of the group. Mike Peterson also came in from Jacksonville and his presence will definitely upgrade the linebacking corps. The Falcons are a young talented team that’s definitely on the way up. But it just might be a case of taking one step back this year to take two steps forward in the future. Forecast: A small step back, second place in the NFC South and another trip to the playoffs. Projected Win Total: 8-10.

8. MINNESOTA: Like it or lump it, he’s baaaack. By now, everyone ought to be immune to the second, post-retirement comeback of Brett Favre. It’ll be a dog n’ pony show the likes of which we haven’t yet seen. We’ll leave the wisdom and propriety of this move for others to debate and focus on the practical considerations. Is he an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson and/or Sage Rosenfeld? Probably, but for how long? Last year, Favre started out like a house afire with the Jets only to flame out coming down the stretch. Now, there are rumors coming out of camp that Favre’s presence hasn’t been met with widespread approval in the locker room. Regardless of who the quarterback is going to be, the Vikes are primed to have a very good year. Start with Adrian Peterson, the best running back in the NFL, and move forward from there. The Vikes have a good wideout in Bernard Berrian and an up-and-coming star in Sidney Rice First-round pick Percy Harvin brings blazing speed and another great option. Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe isn’t a star by any means, but provides a veteran presence. The offensive line will once again be anchored by All-Pro Steve Hutchinson and earth mover LT Bryant McKinnie returns to bolster things. But the other three spots are in a state of flux. Perennial All-Pro Matt Birk (Harvard’s Own) left to join the Ravens and has been replaced by untested second-year center Joe Sullivan. Journeyman Anthony Herrera and rookie Phil Loadholt will hold down the right side of the line. On defense, the line will be something specialk to watch. Tag Team Willams return to clog the middle and Jaren Allen is simply a beast at DE. They have a solid linebacking crew in Leber, E.J. Henderson and Greenway. Antoine Winfield remains a top-notch corner and Cedric Griffin has grown to be a reliable veteran at the other corner. Maybe they’re a little thin at safety, but all in all this is a defense that will make offenses league-wide uncomfortable. Forecast: Second Place in the NFC North and a Wild Card berth. Projected Win Total: 9-11.

7. CHICAGO: The acquisition of Jay Cutler from Denver was a bold move by the Bears, but it remains to be seen how much they will benefit. There are some who view Cutler as a big-time quarterback while others (mostly in Denver) regard him as a petulant, immature jerk. We know that he can throw a football, but his leadership qualities are open to debate. Right after the trade a lot of pundits anointed the Bears as NFC North champs, but a quarterback alone does not a team make. Devin Hester is back in good health and ought to be Cutler’s prime target along with TE Greg Olsen. However, there is a considerable lack of depth in the receiving corps. Matt Forte had an impressive rookie season, and undoubtedly, the Bears are looking to him to improve. The Bears brought in Orlando Pace from St. Louis and 08’s #1 pick, Chris Williams needs to rebound from last year’s back injury. If healthy, the Bears O-line ought to be among the best in the division. On defense, Tommie Harris, Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are the anchors to a top-flite defense. Maybe the secondary isn’t as good as the front seven, but Coach Smith is a defensive guy and will move people in and out until they find the right mix. Forecast: First in the NFC North. Projected Win Total: 9-11.

6. NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots had a fascinating off-season with the departures of Pioli and McDaniels. Rodney Harrison retired, as did Tedy Bruschi right before the team’s fourth preseason game. So why is it that the great football writers like Peter King regard the Patriots as Super Bowl contenders? Does the presence of Tom Brady alone automatically ensure another trip to the postseason? There are a lot of holes on this team, especially on defense. On offense, there’s no doubt that Brady has some of the best tools with which to work in the NFL. Provided that everyone stays healthy Moss and Welker are going to see the ball thrown in their direction a lot. Fred Taylor joined the team and he and “Tiptoes” Maroney are going to get the bulk of the carries with Kevin Faulk returning as the third down back. The Patriots have a very good offensive line with Mankins, Light and Koppen. There’s no reason why the offense can’t be among the League’s best. On defense, the Patriots have a very good defensive line with Seymour, Wilfork and Warren but, moving into the linebackers and secondary, there are a lot of holes. During camp, they acquired DE/OLB Derrick Burgess from Oakland and they’re hoping for health and consistency from Adalius Thomas. Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerrod Mayo had a brilliant first year, and with Bruschi’s retirement, will be called on to be a defensive leader. Time will tell if Mayo’s up to the task. The backfield has been completely revamped with veterans Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs coming over in free agency to compliment Sanders and Meriwether. They also have young players in the mix with Willhite, Wheatley, Butler and Chung. The Patriots may be the best coached and most well-prepared team in the NFL. In the early going, the defense will struggle and will need to rely on a high-powered offense to keep them in games. But the defense we see in September will barely resemble the one that takes the field when the games really matter. Forecast: 1st Place in the AFC East. Projected Win Total: 10-12.

5. NY GIANTS: Even though they lost Derrick Ward to free agency and Amani Toomer is gone, there remains enough firepower in the ground game with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. The G-Men stocked up on wide receivers during the draft, picking Hakeem Nicks in the first round and Ramses Barden, They also made a big splash in free agency grabbing DT Chris Canty from the Cowboys. Their defense is elite, perhaps among the 2-3 best in the NFL. There are no holes on that side of the ball and, as a group, is an absolute rock wall. So why not pick them for first in the NFC East? Answer: Either you’re an Eli Manning guy or not. Despite signing that record-breaking contract extension during camp, a good number of folks aren’t quite sold on Eli. His primary targets (Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon) are steady players, but neither is going to set the world on fire. Kevin Boss is a good, but not great, tight end. In the end, this is a team that will be playing January football, but over the course of sixteen games there will be times when the offense sputters causing Coach Coughlin’s head to explode. Forecast: 2nd Place in the NFC East and a Wild Card berth. Projected win total: 10-12.

4. INDIANAPOLIS: “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” Tony Dungy has hung up his whistle and moved on to greener pastures. He’s one of the classiest gentlemen ever to grace the NFL and everyone (even Patriots’ fans) wishes him all the best. Jim Caldwell has been Dungy’s understudy for a few years, so there will be no radical changes in philosophy in the wake of his retirement. Marvin Harrison is gone too, having rejected an offer to stay while looking for a bigger payday that hasn’t quite arrived. As long as Peyton’s around with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, the offense will still put up a bazillion points. Joseph Addai is a high quality running back, so they should recover from Harrison’s absence with nary a blip. They added running back Donald Brown from Connecticut with their first pick, and he may prove to be a more dynamic back than Addai over time. The O-line is still comprised of those battle-tested vets who have kept Manning safe and sound all these years. On defense, the human cannonball Bob Sanders is injured (again) and may be ready for the opener. There are few defensive backs in the NFL who are game changers, Sanders’ presence in the lineup is the difference between a serious contender and a one n’ done in January. Dwight Freeney still anchors a good defensive line and, while the linebackers are just ok, the secondary remains solid. Due to simply standing still in the off season, Indy may be a team that’s heading in the wrong direction. Forecast: 1st in the AFC South. Projected Win Total: 10-12.

3. PITTSBURGH: The reigning Super Bowl champs return largely intact. Reports indicate that Coach Tomlin is running a relaxed camp this summer, as contrasted with Coach Belichick’s version of the Bataan Death March. Whether this philosophy bears fruit come December remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt that the Steelers will continue to be a force with which to be reckoned in the AFC. Big Ben returns behind the controls, and he’s about as tough a quarterback as there is in the NFL. He has a marvelous running game with Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall. Hines Ward, Limas Sweed and Santonio Holmes will see the ball a lot together with tight end Heath Miller. In short, Roethlisberger has all the weapons he needs to advance the ball. The offensive line remains a little suspect. The defense is the best in the NFL, and the line was shored up with the drafting of DT Ziggy Hood from Mizzou on the first round. The anchors are James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and Lamar Woodley, three of the very best at their respective positions. It’s hard to find any holes whatsoever in this defense, and barring a Super Bowl hangover (a rather unlikely scenario), this group will be primed for another run in January. Another thing going in the Steelers’ favor is that they play a rather weak schedule of opponents, so it ought to be a lot of fun in Steeler World this year. Forecast: 1st Place in the AFC North and another trip to the AFC Championship. Projected win total: 11-13.

2. PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles begin the new season grieving the loss of their Defensive Coordinator, Jim Johnson, who passed away from cancer just before camp began. His loss is a terrible blow to the team, because he was one of the brightest and creative defensive minds in the game. There’s no telling whether the defense will fold without him or rally around each other in his memory. Stewart Bradley blew out a knee in training camp and will be lost for the season. Emotional leader Brian Dawkins also left for Denver via free agency and he was one of the fireplugs of the defense. The linebackers and the line are a pretty ferocious bunch with which to contend, though outside of Asante Samuel, there are question marks in the defensive backfield. Chances are that former Patriot Ellis Hobbs won’t be an impact player. But this team revolves around Donovan McNabb and the offense. Andy Reid loves massive offense linemen and really plugged a big hole with the acquisition of Jason Peters from Buffalo. With the inclusion of Peters, the Eagles O-Line may be the biggest, baddest and best in the NFL. McNabb found a reliable target last year in DeSean Jackson and the team drafted Jeremy Maclin from Mizzou to eventually fill the other spot. Brian Westbrook returns to tote the football but there are always durability issues with a smallish back so the team drafted LeSean McCoy from Pitt to back him up. Midway through camp, the Eagles also added Michael Vick to the mix. Whether he’s used in the Wildcat or is simply insurance for the oft-injured McNabb is something that will play out as the season unfolds. Forecast: The Eagles make it out of the tough NFC East on top, but it’s going to be a dogfight to the end. Projected Wins: 10-12.

1. SAN DIEGO: Say whatever you will about the other AFC contenders, the Chargers have the fewest question marks of any of them. Perhaps they may not have the best individual stars, but collectively they’re a solid bunch. Shawne Merriman has returned from injury and his presence only solidifies one of the best 3-4 defenses in the conference. They have two outstanding cornerbacks in Cromartie and Jammer, and the linebacking corps is superb. The D-line are seasoned veterans and are highly efficient. On offense, look for LT to have a big bounceback year, now that he can be adequately spelled by Sproles when needed. Philip Rivers is a terrific quarterback, and he has all the weapons he needs to adequately move the ball with Gates, Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers. The O-line is comprised of a steady veteran group. Forecast: The Chargers easily win the AFC West and have a nice playoff run, maybe to the Conference Championship. Projected Win Total: 11-13.