Super Bowl XLII

New England -11.5 NY Giants 54

The week without football is purportedly a lost, empty time for football junkies. T’aint so. In New England, last Sunday was a veritable “Currier & Ives” day for taking in the scenery in the country in the snow. It’s really not that bad, you ought to give it a try some time…

I’ve decided to take a pass on the annual Two-week Pregame Show, due in large part to the presence of a New York team in the game and the unbearably nauseating noise coming from the media. Suddenly, everybody’s a “football expert” (such is not the case here). Putting the nonsense aside, the Giants are in the middle of a great run, taking three wins on the road during the Playoffs, and no one should diminish how difficult it is getting to the Super Bowl the Hard Way. The Patriots accomplished the same feat in 1985 only to see their season come to an inglorious end in Super Bowl XX.

Usually I have a pretty good feel about a game well before the Vegas Boys cast their lot, but this year I’m having a difficult time matching strengths and weaknesses. If the Patriots play their game, they will win. If they play poorly and the Giants are able to capitalize while simultaneously playing flawless football, the Giants have a decent shot. Right now, I’m feeling 60/40 Patriots, certainly not taking the points. One way or another, this is going to be a football game, not a blowout. If you’re passionately rooting for one or the other, it ought to be a terrific matchup.

We’re here in praise of the G-Men, not to bury them. Coach Coughlin proved to be the right man for the job and ought to be rewarded with a lengthy extension after all is said and done in Phoenix. They have some really solid players and will play the game on Sunday as if there’s nothing to lose. On offense, Eli Manning has finally played to the level of expectations. He’s not his older brother, nor is he called upon to be the focal point. Coughlin and (Buddy’s pal) Gilbride have established a balanced attack. Everyone believed that once Shockey went down with a broken leg the Giants were finished. Kevin Boss has done a fantastic job filling in. They have size with Jacobs and Burress, quickness with Bradshaw and veteran skill and leadership with Toomer.

On defense, the strength is their defensive ends, Tuck, Strahan and Umenyiora. Their linebackers are solid and defensive backs quick and experienced. They present a number of blitz packages that ought to keep Brady on his toes all afternoon. When they played New England in Week 17, three of the Patriots’ O-Line starters were out, so it remains to be seen whether the Giants’ interior line can handle the challenge. If they played well in below-zero conditions in Green Bay, chances are their level of play will only improve in the comfortable conditions in Phoenix.

Turning now to the Patriots, they really have not had a dominant outing in January. Jacksonville and San Diego gave them everything they could, yet New England continually readjusted packages and schemes before hitting on ideas that enabled them to win. The strength of this team is that no other coach will out-prepare, out-think or out-work Belichick. He has assembled a cast of hard working, intelligent players who are capable of readjusting at the drop of a hat. They’re a humble lot who will not underestimate their opponent for a second. Many of them are old hands at the media circus that surrounds the game and will be entirely focused on executing on the field while ignoring everything off of it.

One of the troubling factors for the Patriots’ defense in January has been the opponents’ short and mid range passing games. The linebackers have simply allowed too much space underneath. The other areas of concern are the size and strength of Jacobs and Burress. Jacobs is like a human earthmover, when he’s able to build a head of steam it seems as if it takes eleven guys to bring him down. Burress is going to win any push and shove match at the line with the corner who’s assigned to pick him up. If he’s allowed any space, he’ll burn the Patriots.

Offensively, there are a number of big questions for New England. They are less experienced than the defense in terms of the Super Bowl. With the notable exception of T. Brady, Esq. and Kevin Faulk, most of the offensive weapons are experiencing the Big Game for the first time. Lest we forget, Moss, Welker, Maroney, Watson and Stallworth are all first-timers. Although Maroney has had two big games in January, I’m still not sold on his stand up running style. Someday he’s going to get leveled by a linebacker unless he learns to adequately protect the football.

The Sportsline Experts are unanimous in their selection of the Giants to beat the spread, and I have to admit to being a lemming on this one. One of the few sites that have New England covering is WhatIfSports.com, who simulated the matchups 10,001 times and had the Patriots winning 30-16. A game can be simulated a million times and chances are that variables will appear in the actual game that failed to appear in a simulation.

Projected Final Score: New England 31, NY Giants 27.