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Week 1 Preview (The Sunday Games)

It’s “Kickoff Weekend” where anything can happen and oftentimes does. In terms of picking who’s going to win in the first week or so it’s more a matter of potluck than skill, and anyone who suggests otherwise is simply trying to con you.

Here are the rules from last season: I don’t gamble nor do I recommend it. I write the weekly picks for the fun of it, what I do at the end of each week is to compare my performance against the “experts” over at CBSSportsline.com Last season, my record was (Not Including Playoffs):

For the Season:
Vs. W/L (149-107)
Vs. Spread: (121-133-2)
Vs. +/-: (120-128-4)
As compared to the "experts":
Harmon 132-130-5
Prisco 135-127-5
Judge 135-127-5
Davis 125-137-5
Richard 128-134-5

At Houston -3 Kansas City

It’s a new era in Houston at quarterback, as the bruised and battered David Carr was sent packing and former Falcon backup Matt Schaub is the new man at the helm for the Texans. Time will tell if Schaub meets the same fate as did Carr (who spent most of his time in Houston getting slammed around like a ragdoll). The Chiefs will have a new starter behind center as well, the wily old backup Damon Huard gets the call while Brodie Croyle waits in the wings. Huard was an admirable replacement for the oft-injured Trent Green last year, and Coach Herm should’ve turned the offense over to him in last year’s pathetic playoff loss to Indy. LJ is back in tow with a fat new contract extension, so KC will be calling his number quite a bit on Sunday. The problem with the Chiefs is that it’s hard to tell whether they’re a team on the way up, on the way dpown or going sideways. No matter the direction they’re headed they are still a better football team than Houston.

Projected final score: Kansas City 24, Houston 21.

Denver -3.5 At Buffalo
Coach Shanahan generally puts together a solid group, but the jury’s still out on whether Jay Cutler’s the real thing. Denver fans won’t have the maddeningly inconsistent Jake The Snake to kick around any longer as he’s “retired”. The Bronco defense, less Al Wilson and the late Darrent Williams still promises to be tough, while the O-Line can still blow holes through the toughest front sevens in the game. Buffalo’s J.P. Losman is a little further along in the development chain than Cutler. Willis McGahee has left Buffalo and his replacement, rookie #1 draft pick Marshawn Lynch has great potential but is an unknown commodity. What is known about the Bills is that Coach Jauron will have his team prepared. This is a game that the Bills can win, provided they match Denver’s physicality and play with greater intensity. And why not, as they’re at home and it’s their first game and everyone from Syracuse to St. Catherine’s will be rooting them on. On this day, emotion beats a more talented group.

Projected final score: Buffalo 27, Denver 24.

Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cleveland

Cleveland may be the worst team in the NFL this year, and with Dallas holding their first draft choice for next year, you can bet dollars to doughnuts that the atmosphere is mighty glum by the Lake. Romeo Crennel deserves better than this. Jim Brown “is not walking through that door, fans.” Neither is Marion Motley or Otto Graham for that matter. Brady Quinn is the quarterback of the future, but that has yet to arrive, so Browns’ fans will be treated to Charlie Frye and a cast of thousands this season. Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh there is a new coach in town. His name is “Sir”. Coach Tomlin came into camp with a Lombardi-style approach as the Steelers try to rebuild on the fly. Big Ben, Willie Parker and Hines Ward have returned once more to torment defenses around the NFL while the defense has never lost their identity despite some personnel changes. The Steelers will roll into Cleveland and they will…kick…ass.

Projected final score: Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 7.

At Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee
Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, here we have in evidence two well-coached divisional rivals who do not like one another. If memory serves correct, the Tuxedos went south last year and took it to the hosts. Suffice to say, the bad taste lingers in the mouths of Coach Del Rio’s charges. At the last moment, David Garrard was named the starter while Byron Leftwich was abruptly released (hazard a guess as to why?). Garrard has started a number of games in the past, so he certainly no hubcap out there. Jones-Drew is a good runner and the Jags are an all-around solid team, even without hard hitting safety Donovin Darius who left for Oakland. On the other side, are you buying or selling on Vince Young? Last year, he was a remarkable force on the football field, making dramatic runs and leading his team to a number of upsets. But that was last year. Defenses have spent their off-season figuring out this guy. It remains to be seen if he can graduate to the elite level or if he’s just a (dangerous) one-trick pony.

Projected final score: Jacksonville 27, Tennessee 20.

At St. Louis -1 Carolina
This is a toughie to pick. St. Louis has done a nice job of rebuilding over the past couple of years while this is a make-or-break year for Coach Fox and the Panthers. Last year, Cowlina was a big disappointment, due in large part to the injuries to Steve Smith and Dan Morgan (who has no place setting foot on the field ever again). The Panthers were pretty much humiliated in their third (dress rehearsal) exhibition against New England. For this reason alone I’m inclined to go with the home team.

Projected final score: St. Louis 24, Carolina 20.

Philadelphia -3 At Green Bay

Donovan McNabb appears to be fully recovered from last year’s knee injury and that’s not a good thing for the rest of the NFC East. Meanwhile, up there in “Titletown” this is probably Favre’s last time on the merry-go-round, and there’s much sentiment for him to go out with a bang. The problem for Favre and the Pack offense is they’re somewhat banged up heading into Sundays’s game, with Driver and rookie Brandon Jackson having been injured in the preseason. Ahman Green is no longer there to carry the load for the Pack, so they’re going to struggle putting up points.

Projected final score: Philadelphia 23, Green Bay 17.

At Minnesota -3 Atlanta

While much has been made of the quarterback situation in Atlanta as well as with the Vikes, the outcome of this game will be determined in the trenches. Minnesota’s lines are superior to Atlanta’s. Joey Harrington isn’t the world’s worst quarterback and he possesses some decent weapons. They have good running backs in Norwood and Dunn, deep threats and one of the best tight ends in the business. On defense, outside of Keith Brooking, there’s a whole lot of “eh”. The Vikings have a relatively unknown and unproven commodity in quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. However, with Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson running the ball, Jackson doesn’t need to do a lot of the work with his arm.

Projected final score: Minnesota 17, Atlanta 13.

At Washington -3 Miami
The Cam Cameron era kicks off for the Dolphins with a trip to the DC and a visit with Coach Gibbs’ crew. Miami is trying to rebound from the disastrous Nick Saban Era, and are trying to determine if Trent Green can lead the offense back to its historically lofty status. There are no defensive issues. Meanwhile, the ‘Skins are looking to bounce back from a horrible 5-11 season with Jason Campbell now fully in command at quarterback. If Clinton Portis can stay healthy, the team has a chance.

Projected final score: Washington 20, Miami 13.

New England -6.5 At NY Jets

Just about everyone has already penciled the Patriots into the AFC Championship, but the team opens the season with some glaring deficiencies that will take some time to resolve. Harrison is suspended, Seymour is out indefinitely and Samuel missed all of camp in a contract dispute. On offense, Maroney has yet to prove he can absorb the punishment as a feature back. Brady has been handed a full compliment of receivers and it’ll take time for he and the new group to find a rhythm. The Jets brought in Thomas Jones from Chicago to take the reps of the now-retired Curtis Martin (who awaits the call from the folks in Canton). They have a very good, hard hitting defense and match up with New England very well. The Patriot team in September does not resemble the same team in December and January. Look for the Jets to win this one.

Projected final score: NY Jets 24, New England 23.

At Seattle -6 Tampa Bay
Let’s see: Seattle’s at home with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. Maybe their defense isn’t the best, but it’s not dog meat, either. On the other side of the ball, the “death watch” appears to be on for Coach Chucky, whose team has done nothing but regress since their championship year five seasons ago. He will be helped considerably by Jeff Garcia, who performed wonders in Philly last year after McNabb went down with an injury. But Garcia doesn’t exactly have the tools with which to work as he possessed with the Eagles. The Bucs need Cadillac Williams to step up and revert to the form of his rookie year.

Projected final score: Seattle 27, Tampa Bay 14.

At San Diego -6 Chicago
This ought to be the game of the day. The NFC Champs go out west to face a team with something to prove under a new coach. The Bears did not make any significant upgrades during the offseason, which leads many observers to believe that the team will not be the dominant force they were in 2006. Rex Grossman remains an enigma while Cedric Benson has yet to show he can handle a full-time load carrying the ball. After being the dominant team in the AFC last year, San Diego was beaten at home by New England in the second round. The early exit caused Schottenheimer to get fired and the eternal retread Norv Turner to step into a sure-fire winning deal. This week, the Bears have no shot, no shot, my friend.

Projected final score: San Diego 31, Chicago 13.

At Oakland -1.5 Detroit

The collapse of the Raiders last year was about 98% the fault of the offense. There isn’t a whole lot wrong on the defensive side of the ball. They’ll be good for 6-7 wins this year, with or without JaMarcus (who, as of today, is still holding out). King Al hired a new coach and they’ve brought Daunte Culpepper in from Miami to keep the seat warm for the aforementioned #1 Draft Pick. If Culpepper’s knee is reasonably sound, there’s no reason why he can’t rebound to be a reasonable facsimile of his glory days in Minnesota.

Detroit is all about the passing game, as Calvin Johnson joins an already established deep receiving corps. They added Tatum Bell and TJ Duckett to carry the ball while Kevin Jones continues to rehab a broken foot. The Lions just aren’t as good defensively as Oakland, and therein lies the story.

Projected final score: Oakland 23, Detroit 17.

At Dallas -6 NY Giants

You know it’s going to be a long year when your team’s best player comes out in the press and states that his retirement from the game was hastened by his ill-feeling toward the current coach. As if Tom Coughlin’s situation was not already precarious enough. The G-Men are going nowhere fast this year. How does a team replace 50% of its offense? The hole created by Tiki’s retirement can’t be filled in just one season. Eli Manning has proved slightly more than nothing so far, and that was with one of the most explosive weapons in his backfield. Brandon Jacobs may be effective in the red zone, but how do the Giants get there? Defensively, what can the team expect from Michael Strahan, who missed all of camp in an ill-conceived holdout?

Down in Big D, Wade Son of Bum has not taken the reins after the Big Tuna’s retirement. Wade has been placed in a pretty good situation. Let’s see how long it’ll take before his laid-back approach sinks the team. At least for this week, “Them Cowboys” ought to be safe.

Projected final score: Dallas 28, NY Giants 17.