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Old School opinion (flavored with East Coast Angst) on sports, music, politics, law and American Life with a little bit of Frolic In Detour...

Wednesday, April 11, 2007


Playoffs
Let the madness begin! It’s Playoff Season here in Hockey Falls, minus the Bruins once more. As we begin this two-month odyssey in search of The Grail, it’s almost inconceivable to think that four of the Original Six will be sitting this one out while hockey continues in such hotbeds as Atlanta and Nashville. Seriously, is the game better off for this? Last year’s Cup winners, Carolina, failed to make it to the dance.

Playoffs are all about goaltending. Them’s that got it go on, them’s that ain’t go home, simple enough. The top seeds have elite goalies, in Jersey there’s Martin Brodeur. Detroit has Hasek, Vancouver has Luongo, Atlanta has Lehtonen and Nashville has Vokoun.

There are some intriguing matchups to consider, and always many surprises. There always seems to be one or two upsets in the opening round and a Cinderella story. Accordingly, I can't predict how many games each series will last, but have a pretty good guess as to which teams will move on to Round 2.

(1) Buffalo vs (8) NY Islanders: Beginning with the 1-8 seeds, the Buffalo-Islanders match up, Sabres are prohibitive favorites. The Islanders captured the 8-seed by winning a shootout on the final day, so they barely squeaked their way into the dance. Islanders enter with a big question in goal. Rick DiPietro may be out with concussion issues, leaving Wade Dubielewicz to man the pipes. They made a nice move picking up Ryan Smyth at the deadline, who will provide veteran leadership and Sean Hill and Brendan Witt provide support at the blue line.

Buffalo is one of the League’s best teams overall, they’re sound in every aspect of the game. Ryan Miller is a terrific goalie, and they have great scoring forwards in Drury, Briere and Vanek. Maybe they’re not the toughest bunch on the blue line, but their D is skilled in puck control.

Prediction: Barring a catastrophe, Buffalo has little difficulty dispatching Islanders (in five, tops six)

(1) Detroit vs (8) Calgary: In the West, Detroit and Calgary square off. This was Year 1 of the post-Stevie Y Era, and the Wings just carried on as if he’d never left. They key to the Wings will be how far can their aging goal/defense carry them. In a place where experience matters greatly, Detroit has more than any other team. Hasek, Lindstrom, Chelios and Schneider have all been there before (and before…). They have Pavel Datsyuk up front and brought in Todd Bertuzzi to help the offense. If they can stay healthy, there’s no reason for a first-round knockout.

The Flames limped into the eight seed, but they still possess firepower with Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Kristian Huselius and Matthew Lombardi and Daymond Langkow. Miikka Kiprusoff knows how to carry a team to the Cup Finals, Dion Phaneuf is one of the best young blueliners in the League, while Roman Hamrlik remains a highly effective quarterback on the power play.
It’s not as if the Wings are prohibitive favorites; facing Calgary is no twirl around the rink. But when goaltending and defense tell the story, Detroit is better and more experienced in those phases of the game.

Prediction: Wings in five.

(2) Anaheim vs (7) Minnesota: The Ducks are among the League’s elite. Brian Burke has done a wonderful job putting together what may be the most balanced team in hockey.
In goal, Conn Smythe Winner Jean-Sebastien Giguere looks to regain his outstanding form of a few years back. If he fails, Ilya Bryzgalov is waiting in the wings. Up front they have Teemu Selanne, Andy McDonald, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Dustin Penner and Chris Kunitz. On defense, there’s the All-World Duo of Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger.

The Wild had a nice run leading up to Playoffs, so look for the team to be primed and ready. Jacques Lemaire’s crew struck gold with rookie goaltender Niklas Backstrom. Former Bruin Brian Rolston had a career year and the team is filled with tremendous young talent. Up front, they feature Marion Gaborik, Pavol Demitra, and Pierre-Marc Bouchard. At the blue line, they have more “defensive” defensemen.


Prediction: Ducks in six.

(2) New Jersey vs (7)Tampa Bay: Lou Lamoreillo fired his coach with a week to go in the regular season, a tactic which he has successfully employed in the past. Lou has taken over the coaching reigns and will guide his charges in what shapes up to be a deep run in the tournament. Over the last 10-12 years, the Devils may be the most boring franchise in professional sport, but they know how to win, and Lou knows how to build a perennially Cup-contending franchise. Their key to success on the ice is Martin Brodeur. If he’s on his game (which occurs 99% of the time), Jersey can sit back, trap their opponents and capitalize on mistakes. New Jersey is a “team” in the same way that Tikhonov’s USSR teams were in the seventies, no flashy standouts but a group whose fundamentals were synchronized to near-perfection backed by a world class goaltender.

Tampa Bay won the Cup two years ago, and many of the players from that team remain with Coach Tortorella. They have great talent in Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Dan Boyle on the blue line. However, Marc Denis (while a competent starter) is no Nikolai Khabibulin between the pipes.

Prediction: The Devils will grind their way past the Lightning in no more than six.

(3) Vancouver vs (6) Dallas: The Stars can throw everything but the kitchen sink at Roberto Luongo, but are going to have an awful time trying to score goals against Vancouver’s ace.

On paper, Canucks are clearly superior on defense, but it’s on the ice that matters. The defense corps of Kevin Bieksa, Sami Salo, Willie Mitchell Brent Sopel, Mattias Ohlund Lukas Krajicek, Rory Fitzpatrick and Alex Edler are a formidable bunch in front of Luongo. Up front, the team isn’t as strong. The Sedin Twins continue to improve but Vancouver’s two big guns (Markus Naslund and Brendan Morrison) have not played up to par this year.

Dallas’ core group features veterans who have won the Cup. Up front, Mike Modano Brenden Morrow and Eric Lindros didn’t exactly post career seasons, but Jere Lehtinen, and Ladislav Nagy (over in trade from Phoenix) can help provide a boost to the offense. Like the Canucks, the strength of this team is in defense and goal. Marty Turco is a top-notch goaltender who may be able to propel the Stars on a roll. Their defense features
Power play aces Sergei Zubov and Philippe Boucher. Behind them are wily old vets Darryl Sydor, Mattias Norstrom (over in trade from LA), Jon Klemm and Stephane Robidas. These guys know their way around the rink in April and May.

Prediction: Two evenly matched teams, but Canucks have the edge in goal, they win in six or seven.

(3) Atlanta vs (6) NY Rangers: Rangers peaked at the right time, rising from the pack of stragglers all the way into the six seed. They have solid goaltending in Henrik Lundquist, Captain Jaromir Jagr and Brendan Shanahan certainly know their way around the rink come springtime and they have a nice supporting cast.

This year, Atlanta has put all their chips in. They acquired Keith Tkachuk at the trade deadline to compliment Ilya Kovalchuk and.. Between the pipes will be Kari Lehtonen, who may be the finest young goalie on Planet Earth.

Prediction: This one has the potential to go the distance, and in the end, Thrashers pull it out.

(4) Nashville vs (5) San Jose: This may be the most exciting series of the first round. Both teams are loaded with stars, it’s a wonder that both finished in the middle of the Western Conference pack. Both teams have the horses up front. Peter Forsberg came in at the deadline from Philly (for a boatload of picks/prospects) and if he’s healthy, will provide playoff experience as well as a goal scoring threat. Paul Kariya has been in Music City for two years, and while he’s not the machine he was in Anaheim, he’s not quite ready for retirement. In addition, Steve Sullivan, Martin Erat and Scott Hartnell, J.P. Dumont, Jason Arnott, David Legwand and Alexander Radulov are all good to very good offensive players. On defense Marek Zidlicky, Kimmo Timonen and Shea Weber one of the League’s best. In goal, the Predators are blessed to have two stoppers who’d be a #1 on any other team in Chris Mason and Tomas Vokoun. But is either one better than San Jose’s?

The Sharks are a great team, top to bottom. Joe Thornton (whay can’t we get guys like that?) had another big year Out West and is ably complimented by the likes of Patrick Marleau, Bill Guerin (in trade from St. Louis), Milan Michalek, Ryane Clowe, Steve Bernier and Joe Pavelski. On the blue line, youngsters Matt Carle, Christian Ehrhoff and Marc-Edouard Vlasic are balanced with old hands Scott Hannan, (The ill-tempered) Kyle McLaren and Craig Rivet (in trade from Montreal). In goal, Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala (recovered from injury) are perhaps as scary a tandem as Nashville’s.

Prediction: Sharks win in seven.

(4) Ottawa vs (5) Pittsburgh: Senators have Ray Emery in goal and feature Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson up front. And the guys behind them aren’t half bad, either. On defense, Tom Preissing, Wade Redden, Joe Corvo, Andrej Meszaros, Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips are a solid group, both on power plays and in their own end. This group works well together.

Penguins are on the verge of being the NHL’s next dynasty. Given the team’s lack of success in recent years they have been the beneficiaries of high draft choices and have chosen exceedingly well. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal will be the cornerstones of the Next Big Thing. In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury is beginning to justify his lofty selection as #1 overall pick a few years back. On defense, Sergei Gonchar (why can’t we get guys like that?) and Ryan Whitney will provide a potent power play threat. The rest of the defense are the traditional guys who won’t allow their goaltender to be pushed around. Management has done a good job of surrounding these wonder boys with guys who have been tested by the rigors of Playoffs. Gary Roberts and Mark Recchi have hoisted the Cup

Prediction: This playoff will be an opportunity to learn for this tremendously talented bunch. It may go seven, but Pittsburgh gets the nod.

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