2007 MLB Preview
Part 6: American League East
Finally, we turn our attention to the American League East, that division where "Postcards" will be primarily watching with 'bated breath. Last year, the Red Sox collapsed in August and wound up in third place behind the Yankees and Toronto. As is the case with the AL Central, the winner could be anyone of these three.

Here is the projected order of finish and what follows are the reason why:

1. NY Yankees
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay
New York Yankees: Though the Yankees are our most bitter rivals, we begin by sending our respects to the family and friends of Cory Lidle, and send our best wishes for the continued recovery of Bobby Murcer. Now that The Boss has allowed George Cashman the freedom to do his job without interference from the "Tampa Gang", he has made some wonderful moves. He traded Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield (two guys who are past their primes) in exchange for young prospects. Cashman basically unloaded a boatload in salary and restocked the farm system at the same time. In addition, Bernie Williams has called it a day. He was the consummate professional, and while he was a cog in those great Yankee teams of the last decade, he will not be missed by Red Sox fans. These moves allow the Yankees additional salary room to plug in any missing pieces they need during the season, as they did with Bobby Abreu last summer. So, congratulations to Cashman for a job well done. If any problems arise, the Yankees will simply buy their way out of it or flip a few warm bodies to whatever team’s looking to unload salary. As long as The Boss has a breath in him, the Yankees will never fall behind in the pack.

Right now, the Yankees' starting pitching is questionable. Wang (19 wins) is expected to be on the DL for at least a month. Weep not, O ye denizens of Bronxville, Mike Mussina (15 wins) will continue to anchor the rotation, but he's no spring chicken at 39. Neither is Andy Pettitte (35), who returns to the Bronx after three seasons in Houston. Carl Pavano is slated to be the Opening Day starter, after having been an injury-plagued bust over the last two years. The Yankees were also players in the Japanese sweepstakes, having secured the services of young lefty ace Kei Igawa. If none of these guys can get the job done, look for Clemens to join best bud Pettitte and return to the Pinstripes. Waiting in the wings is the highly-touted 6'5" righty, Philip Hughes. He won't be 21 until June, but look for him to make it to The Show later on this season.

The bullpen is pretty much intact from last year. Torre relies heavily on his bullpen and occasionally the Yanks have to contend with dead arms and burnout. Scott Proctor came out of the 'pen 83 times last year and Kyle Farnsworth came out 72 times for a combined total of 168 innings. That's a lot of work for two relievers. Torre needs to keep a lid on these two for the inevitable “Yankee stretch run”. Mike Myers continues in his lefty setup role along with Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens, Brian Bruney, Sean Henn and Luis Vizcaino. All of these guys have the job of getting the ball to Mariano Rivera in the ninth. Mo saved only 34 games last year, his lowest total since '02. He's 36, but seems timeless with his devastating cut fastball that doomed many a rival (mainly Boston). As much as Sox’ fans hate to see the guy enter the ballgame, he remains among the most feared and respected closers in the game (and is a first-class gentleman, to boot).

Turning now to the everyday lineup, Johnny Damon had an awesome first year in The Apple (24 HR, 25 SB, 115 Runs). What more could anyone ask for in a leadoff hitter? Boston really missed his presence in the lineup last year. Look for Johnny to have another big season. 2B Robinson Cano batted .342, and Melky Cabrera was a more than adequate replacement for Hideki Matsui after Godzilla broke his wrist diving for a fly ball and missed a big chunk of the year. He's expected back in full form, ready to terrorize Boston pitching. The Captain, Derek Jeter, had another brilliant year at short, winning the Gold Glove, and batting .343 with 25 steals. He is the glue guy of the team. A-Rod had another typical year (for him, anyway), an OPS in the 900's 35 HR, 121 RBI, 113 Runs, yet he is still disliked by the Yankee faithful. At the end of this year, they'll get their wish, as he can opt out of his current deal and will most likely flee the heat of the kitchen. But he will win AL MVP first, then, head off to sunny climes and even greater riches. RF Bobby Abreu returns for his first full season in New York and ought to continue his high OBP and power. DH Jason Giambi will hit between 35-40 homers, drive in a bundle of runs and generally strike fear in the hearts of American League fans coast-to-coast. C Jorge Posada is getting a little long in the tooth, but remains an important cog the lineup (not to mention a thorn in the side of opponents). The nine-hole ought to be admirably filled by 1B Doug Mientkiewicz. He ain’t there for his stick, guys. He will give the Yankees a solid defensive presence at the bag while getting the odd single or double.

Bottom line is that the Yankees field the best 1-9 lineup in the league. If their pitching falls short, they have the wherewithal to fix any leaks on the SS Steinbrenner. Barring some sort of catastrophe, there’s no way they’ll be kept away from playing October baseball.

Boston Red Sox: Every year it’s the same old story: The “national pundits” pick the Yankees to win it all, while the house touts and toadies in the Boston media proclaim the Sox as Champions before the first pitch in anger has been thrown. “PENNANT FEVER GRIPS HUB! DETAILS AT 11”. Not so fast! Around these parts, drinking the local media’s “Yahoo Kool-Aid” is strictly prohibited. Looking at the team with a reasonable degree of objectivity (easier said than done), it’s not a team that has been well constructed around its core players. All it would take is one key injury, and it’d be 2006 redux.

With or without the rose colored glasses the Red Sox will once more field a very good ballclub. It remains to be seen whether 2006 was an aberration or indicative of the downward trend of an aging team. For all their talent, they are a fragile lot, as was seen last season. While they made some dramatic moves to improve the certain holes on the ballclub, little heed was given to addressing their most vulnerable spots. The death knell for 2006 was the five-game sweep by the Yankees in mid-August. Varitek was already out with knee surgery and Manny went into the vapors for a month. The team mailed it in after that. It was a collapse reminiscent of many a Sox’ swoon in years past. The players who’ve returned in ’07 ought never to forget and come out every day pissed off and angry. Face facts, folks: the honeymoon of October, 2004 is over. The core group remains, but the window of opportunity is closing.

The successful bid of $51.1MM to secure the negotiation rights for Daisuke Matsuzaka blew everyone else out of the water. The four-week soap opera that ensued held nearly all of New England in rapture. His eventual signing and the trumped up media hysteria that surrounded it was something out of Hollywood. The Sox plugged other holes with the signing of RF JD Drew to a four-year $64MM deal, and SS Julio Lugo for 4 years and $32MM. While the bozos on talk radio were making plans for another parade, the pragmatists maintained their wits and remain rather skeptical. After all, these are the Red Sox about whom we speak.

Looking at the everyday lineup, the Sox have a potent 3-4-5 collection of hitters, but after that, realistically, there’s a whole lot of “eh”.

C Jason Varitek is beginning to show signs of marked decrease in power. The Captain remains a valuable asset, but if he plays in excess of 120 games this year, he won’t be around to fulfill the final two years of his contract. He is an aging, yet precious, resource and should be treated accordingly. The front office did him no favors by failing to bring in an adequate understudy. Instead, Red Sox fans will be treated to another year of Doug Mirabelli. He’s the baseball equivalent of indigestion, ugh, the gift that keeps on giving. He was traded to San Diego for Loretta (good trade), then re-acquired one month into the season for Bard and Meredith (who went onto prominent roles), then he was re-signed for another year. After all these musical chairs the only one left is Mirabelli. Hands down, these maneuvers constitute Theo’s biggest blunders as GM. Mirabelli owes his current employment to the fact that he’s the “personal catcher” for one guy. Down in Pawtucket, George Kotteras (acquired from San Diego for Boomer Wells) will hopefully get a lot of grooming, because he’ll being counted on to carry the load shortly.

In 2006, 1B Kevin Youkilis finally got a chance to play every day at one position and had a decent year. He won’t make anyone remember George Scott with the glove, or Mo Vaughn with the bat, but he is a tireless, intense worker who now inherits the “Dirt Dog” mantle from Trot Nixon. Most likely, he’ll be inserted in the two-hole where he’ll get on base by hook or crook. He’s not a classic “first baseman”, but he’ll have to do for right now. The Sox could do far worse than having a guy who hustles and busts his butt every day. Backing up Youk will be Eric Hinske, who provides a left hand bat off the bench and flexibility in the outfield and at third. The Jays inked him to a big deal a few years back, and to their regret all he’s done is regress since his ROY season. He came to Boston in August (after the competitive phase of the season had already passed) and really didn’t do much. He’ll get his chances this year, but it’s a “one n’ done” with this guy. It still remains perplexing as to why Boston didn’t offer Carlos Pena, a hometown guy, the opportunity to play 1B over Hinske.

Dustin Pedroia has been handed the starting second baseman’s job. The team failed to tender Mark Loretta (who really wanted to stay) so that this kid could get the job. What’s the point of developing players if they’re not given a chance to succeed at the big-league level? It’s time for Pedroia, and he should be allowed every opportunity to succeed. Being a rookie in Boston may not necessarily be an easy chore. He came up last year and showed flashes of power and a pretty good glove. While he’s done very well at every level leading up to the majors, he’s simply an unknown major league commodity. Hopefully the team (and the fans) will allow him every opportunity to show his stuff. If he fails, the Sox have a terrific insurance policy in IF Alex Cora, who can adequately play any position left of first base. Cora is considered as one of the headier guys in the game, and is highly regarded by management, teammates and fans alike. However, his strength is in a utility/defensive replacement capacity, not as an everyday player. While he’s an excellent defender, hopefully he won’t have to be pressed into service on a full time capacity.

The Sox brought in Julio Lugo to play short and bat leadoff. Theo has yet to adequately fill Nomar’s spot. First he tried Orlando Cabrera, who will be fondly remembered as one of The 25. They showed no interest in re-signing him, so OC headed off to Anaheim. Then, there was the ill-fated “Edgar Renteria Experiment” that mercifully lasted only one year, before he was deemed “emotionally unsuitable” to play in Boston (and the team is still paying Atlanta a huge chunk of his salary). Following that disaster, the Sox signed Alex Gonzalez to play short. Alex gave the Red Sox and their fans the best fielding shortstop anyone under the age of 80 could remember. He was a lousy hitter, so what? Stick him in the 9-hole and let him bat .190, he was there for his glove, not his stick. And he delivered a simply amazing shortstop. His reward? He was allowed to walk free and signed a three year deal with the Reds. Now it’s Lugo’s turn in the fish bowl. By all accounts, he’ll be more of a Nomar-type with the glove, but he will certainly never be Nomar with the bat.

When Lugo played for Tampa Bay, he used to give the Red Sox fits with his bat. It always seemed as if he was dusting himself off after another wall-ball double. News reports always had the Sox’ brass pining after him as if he were a Hollywood starlet, the attraction seemed strange. He was traded to LA mid-season where he was a colossal flop.

This move has all the signs of another disaster in the making. The length of the contract was simply too big of a gamble. Four years of this guy may feel like forty after all is said and done. He’s an erratic fielder (can you picture all those throws headed for the boxes above the dugout?) and a streaky hitter. When he gets on, he has speed, but it’s necessary to make it to first base. Maybe he’ll hit .320 with 30 doubles and 30 steals. Maybe he’ll commit 50 errors and crumble under the pressure of playing in Boston. The truth lies most likely between those extremes. Something about Lugo (can’t figure it out just yet) doesn’t quite pass the sniff test.

Mike Lowell returns to third base for his second (and final) season in Boston. He surprised the baseball world with a nice bounceback year in ’06. No organization could have a classier representative than Señor Lowell, or could’ve asked any more than he gave. A consummate professional and cancer survivor, he is one of the most respected men in the game. His glove was superb and his bat was more than adequate. However, as the season wore on, Lowell wore down, so it’s hard to say how much he can contribute at the plate this year. With the glove, few are his equal. If he goes down for any reason, it will be Hinske, Cora and “Katie, bar the door.”

David Ortiz, the Mighty Big Papí, returns to DH after his team record-breaking 54 home run season. It’s incredible to think that the Sox picked him off the scrap heap for pocket change a few years back and he has developed into one of the most devastating power hitters in the game. Can he duplicate last year’s prodigious total? Last year was last year, this year David needs to stay healthy and the numbers will take care of themselves.

Moving on to the outfield, the One N’ Only Manny Ramirez comes back for his seventh year in Boston. Everyone’s still trying to figure how Manny ticks. Does it really matter? The guy made it to Spring Training on time (a first!) and got his work in. He is simply among the greatest players to have worn the Boston uniform; can’t fans let it be at that? Beyond his incredible ability to hit a baseball with a bat, how much do we really need to know, anyhow? He does his job then goes his way. Last year, he went down during the five-game massacre (after hitting about .800 in the first three games) and didn’t come back until the boys were setting up their October tee times. He allegedly suffered patellar knee tendonitis. For anyone who’s ever suffered this condition, it’s painful to walk, let alone run and hit. The only remedy is prolonged rest. Given what he’s done for the Red Sox, why not take him at his word and let it go at that? Talk show hosts and callers (i.e., “The Fellowship of The Miserable”) hotly debated the nature of Manny’s injury and whether or not he simply packed it in six weeks early. There’s only one man that can answer the question, and he ain’t talking. It’s not as if he’s a slouch; no one can put up those type of numbers without being totally dedicated to his craft. So, let him be his goofy, enigmatic self. All he really needs to is stay healthy and TCB with the business end of the bat.

Coco Crisp broke his finger in the first week of the season and never fully returned to the levels that were expected. He made a few nice catches in center and stole over 20 bases, but was unable to provide the purported dynamic spark as a leadoff hitter, now he’s firmly entrenched in the seven-hole. The Red Sox and their fans are more than willing to give Covelli an opportunity to showcase his wares this season. Because of his injury, however, if he fails to live up to all of the hype, Jacoby Ellsbury is only a 45 minute drive away. Coco is certainly aware of the phenom breathing down his neck, so look for a marked improvement in his play.

In right field, the oft-injured Trot Nixon has departed and has been replaced by the oft-injured JD Drew (who used an escape hatch in his deal with LA to bolt for a fatter payday back East). This move was a head-scratcher, for sure. The money ($14M/yr.) and the years (four, with a club option after two if he incurs further trouble with his cranky shoulder) were way, way over the top. Ostensibly, he’s been brought in to fill the five-hole in the order, so as to keep pitchers honest when dealing with Ortiz and Manny. The book on Drew is that he’s not durable and he won’t be in the lineup if he incurs the slightest injury. If true, this won’t sit well with the Fenway Faithful, and standing out there alone in right field may not be a warm and fuzzy experience for Mr. Drew (if you think Reggie Jackson and Gary Sheffield had rough times out by Pesky’s Pole, wait ‘til you see how they’ll respond to an underperforming/overpaid Red Sox player. He’s going to want to make like Yaz and stuff his ears with cotton). As is the case with the Lugo deal, Drew is a high risk/high reward proposition. He could have a year like last, where he hit 20 homers and score 100+ runs. Or, very easily, he could “tweak a hammie” and be gone for six weeks, probably recuperating in the hyperbaric chamber he’s been alleged to use on occasion. Right now, given his track record, the jury’s out. We’ll see…

The fourth OF spot goes to free-swingin’ Wily Mo Peña. He came to Boston late last spring in exchange for Bronson Arroyo, who went on to make the National League All-Stars. After one year, this looks like a net loss in the trade ledger. Wily Mo can hit tape-measure home runs on occasion but strikes out far more often than an everyday player should. The manager says that Wily Mo is penciled in for 400 AB this year, but it’s hard to see how that’ll happen barring injury. He’s slowly become a more patient hitter, but since his opportunities to play regularly have been limited, it’s hard to determine how high his upside will be. He really needs to be an everyday player for a team going nowhere rather than a spare part on a contending club.

Turning now to the pitching staff, the Red Sox invested $103 million in the right arm of Daisuke Matsuzaka (of which the player will receive $52 million over six years). The sheer enormity of the deal probably caused a couple of cracks in the foundation of a certain ballpark in the Bronx (as it had been pretty much a given that Matsuzaka-san would be fitted for pinstripes). So, the proactive approach taken by Red Sox ownership is highly commendable.

With that being said, what can Red Sox fans (and the baseball world) expect from Dice-K? Americans’ exposure to Matsuzaka-san has been limited to his performance in last year’s World Baseball Classic, where has was named Tournament MVP. That’s not enough body of work upon which to draw any reasonable barometer. He’s always had five days’ rest, pitched against lesser competition and worked in a shorter season. In spring training, he’s had moments of sizzle combined with moments of fizzle, pretty much what’s to be expected from a guy who’s still feeling his way around town. But the hype is simply too much, and if he doesn’t come out guns a’blazin’ the level of disappointment will be palpable. He’s 26 and has a durable arm. He will do just fine, so long as fans consider that it will take some time and big-league experience for him to fully realize his promise. Back off and let the good come with the bad (as evidenced by his final tune-up at Philly, where he struck out seven and gave up a titanic home run), Dice-K should be O-K for 10-12 wins, 15 on the outside.

The Opening Day starter is the loquacious Curt Schilling, back for his fourth (and perhaps final) year in Boston. This was purportedly his final year as a player (quick, where have we heard that before?) but has decided (at the behest of his family) to play in 2008. He came down Spring Training hoping that a contract extension was a mere formality. The Red Sox shot down that idea before it even took flight, taking a wait-and-see approach. Schilling responded by saying he’d test the free agent waters at year’s end. While it’d be kind of sad to see him take his bloody sock elsewhere, business is business, the laundry remains the same. Let’s hope that Schill has a great start, cooler heads prevail, and he signs a mid-season extension that will allow him to retire in a Boston uniform. If he stays healthy, Curt is good for 16-18 wins in ’07.

The #3 Starter is Josh Beckett, who had a rough initiation to the American League, despite reaching career-highs in wins and innings pitched. All it took was one trip around the League for hitters to wait on his fastball, and he paid dearly for his inability to trust his off-speed stuff. Beckett’s no fool, and is far more inclined not to shake off Varitek’s signals. He’s going to emerge as “the stoppah” this year, all the wiser. Look for Josh to be good for 16-19 wins this year.

The wily ol’ knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield, is penciled in for the fourth spot in the rotation. This will be his 13th year will the ballclub, and he remains as much of a fan favorite as ever. He missed a good piece of the action last year, his first episode of serious DL time in his career. One never can tell what to expect with the knuckleball. If it “knucks” (floats through the air without spinning) he can be unhittable. If it doesn’t, he’ll be spending a lot of time watching his pitches leave the ballyard. Knuckleballers can pitch long after the players with whom they started have packed it in. Look at Hoyt Wilhelm, the guy must’ve been at least 62 when he called it a day. One thing’s for sure, Wake will be counted on to be an innings eater. Anywhere from 10-12 wins from Wake would be a plus. As much as Sox fans appreciate all he’s done, it’s become clear that his knuckleball is costing the team two roster spots. In a division where every game is important, there comes a time when the cost gets too expensive.

The fourth spot is up for grabs at the start of the year. The mercurial Julian Tavarez will fill the role until Jon Lester regains his physical strength. He is in remission, and that was by far the best news Sox fans cheered during the off-season. Hopefully, after a few minor league tune-ups Lester will return to a righteous ovation from the home crowd. Meanwhile, Tavarez (after a nightmarish start in ‘06) should be counted on to give the Sox innings this year. He had a few spot-starts last year and did OK, when he wasn’t karate kicking his opponents. If he’s called upon to be anything more than a spot starter and long reliever, then Fenway Park in July won’t exactly be a carnival atmosphere…

Last year’s bullpen was in a word, putrid. There were approximately 30 different rag arms that were trotted out of the ‘pen. Some of them, like Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen, have promise but need the chance to grow outside of a pressure cooker where every pitch is scrutinized. To patch this gaping hole, Theo brought in a legion of arms including Joel Pineiro (who was originally projected to close), Brendan Donnelly (in trade from the Angels), lefty Hideki Okajima, lefty J.C. Romero, Kyle Snyder (who was culled from the scrap heap last year and did OK), and Javier Lopez (who came in trade last year and was so-so). We’ll just have to see how these guys play out. Piniero was a bum last year, so why shell out $5 mill for mediocrity? Okajima had a long and successful tenure with the Yomiyuri Giants, and the two questions regarding him are: (1) how much gas does he have left in the tank; and (2) did the Red Sox sign him to give Matsusaka-san an added level of comfort? Romero and Donnelly are on the back nine, so durability and effectiveness questions are inevitable. Snyder has an opportunity to regain the promise that made him a high draft choice of the Royals only a few years back. When the injury bug hit the team, he filled in and pretty much held his own. During Theo’s tenure, he has yet to construct a first-class bullpen. Since this year’s crew is a virtual overhaul from ’06, no one’s really certain how well this group will perform. Management has never been shy about moving ineffective relievers off the chessboard and bringing in fresh reinforcements from Pawtucket. Time will tell, that’s about all that can be said.

The closer, Jonathan Papelbon, was originally scheduled to be in the starting rotation. Last year, Pap came in as a closer in April, and was a revelation. He’s big and throws hard and fast. With his intimidating manner, no one had seen a closer this dominating in Boston since Lee Arthur Smith and the late, great Dick Radatz back in the day. In early September, he went down for the year with shoulder troubles. Doctors reportedly advised him that he should consider being a starter in the future and adhere to a strict strengthening regimen for his long term career. That was the plan, anyhow. The Sox had a $160MM payroll with a gaping hole. Papelbon entered Spring Training as a starter and emerged as the team’s closer once more. He had supposedly done so well with his off-season rehab that the docs gave him the green light to close, a move which he wholeheartedly endorsed. For the time being, the Sox’ most pressing need has been resolved. However, they would do well to constantly monitor his progress, and have contingency plans established in the event that he suffers even the slightest ill effects. Papelbon is such an important part of the team not just for ’06, but going forward, that it would be a crime if his long term development is curtailed.

So hear ye, O “Red Sox Nation” (that dreadful term coined by the dreadful CHB), the Towne Crier says, in order for Thy Beloved Nine to hoist the gonfalon, thy team must not suffer the slings and arrows of fate (or tweaketh any hammies). If thy team incurs even the slightest chink in their armor, woe be unto them, likewise unto thee, noble citizens of this fair land. For it is as true as the first crocus of Spring that ye dream of savoring the nectar of the harvest from the mighty grail, only to have such hopes dashed beneath summer skies. Yet, hopeth not in vain, for at least once in four score and ten years, shall thee taste the victor’s fruit…

If the Sox can stay healthy and the recent additions work out well, they can be in the thick of the race deep into September. If they get to October, anything can happen. On April 1st, there are simply too many questions that need to be answered affirmatively in order for the team to a legitimate chance to get to the postseason.

Most likely the Sox will finish second, with a 25% chance at a Wild Card and a 25% chance of finishing third.

Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto gave the Red Sox a first class whuppin’ in 2006. The Jays’ everyday lineup features some outstanding players. They re-upped All-Star CF Vernon Wells long-term and RF Alex Rios is blossoming into a star. They have youth with 2B Aaron Hill, power with 3B Troy Glaus, and they’ve brought in DH Frank Thomas to fill the cleanup role. If he repeats last year’s performance in Oakland, the Jays’ lineup will get a huge boost. They have great tablesetters with LF Reed Johnson and 1B Lyle Overbay. C Gregg Zaun (who bats around .875 against Boston) returns to a provide a veteran presence. Retread-Deluxe SS Royce Clayton will be keeping the seat warm for the Jays’ next phenom. All in all, the Jays’ offense ought to be a productive bunch.

On the mound, the Jays have an awesome 1-2 punch in RHP Roy Halladay and RHP A.J. Burnett. Their #3 starter, Gustavo Chacin, is not bad, either. However, there’s about a 40-story dropoff after that, with the likes of Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers. They lost out on resigning Ted Lilly, which really hurt. Turning to the bullpen, B.J. Ryan is about as good as it gets. Look for B.J. to “smoke ‘em” to the tune of 40 saves (so long as he’s healthy). The other major blow was the loss of set-up guy Justin Speier to Anaheim. So, they’ll have to make due with a group that includes Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo , Brian Tallet and Shaun Marcum. They comprise a C+ mid-relief/setup corps.

GM J.P. Ricciardi has done a very good job putting this team together over the last few years. Keeping Wells around was a great move and the duo of Halliday and Burnett will stand batters on their ears. The everyday crew’s just fine, it’s just the lack of pitching depth will hurt the club over the long haul. First place is a longshot; the Wild Card’s a 25% possibility. Odds are the Jays will settle for third.

Baltimore Orioles: After all these years of meddlesome and inept ownership it appears that the O’s are ready to turn the corner with some tremendous young pitching. Think about it: in the pre-Angelos glory days, the Orioles’ hallmark was great starting pitiching. Starting with guys like Palmer, McNally, Cuellar, on to Flanagan, Boddicker and McGregor, the great Baltimore teams never lacked for depth or quality in their starters. Now, it appears that three young guns are locked n’ loaded for big seasons. For a long time, Baltimore tried to get by with washed up has-beens and lousy kids. Not anymore: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, and Adam Loewen form the nucleus of what very well may become the new Beast of the East. Chances are that this trio won’t hit full stride this year, so look for the O’s to be more pretenders than contenders this year. Filling out the staff will be the dubious Jaret Wright and the journeyman Steve Trachsel. So, there’ll probably be some long afternoons down on the Chesapeake. Red Sox Killer Rodrigo Lopez was traded away to Colorado, so that’s one less headache for Boston.

The O’s rebuilt their bullpen basically from scratch. In are: old friends Scott Williamson and Chad Bradford. Veterans Jamie Walker and Danny Baez will provide additional depth along with Todd Williams, John Parrish and Jeremy Guthrie. Chris Ray returns as the Orioles’ closer.

With a markedly improved group of pitchers, the everyday lineup should be under less pressure to produce runs. Camden Yards is favorable to hitters and the core of Miguel Tejada and Nick Markakis (who will be heavily counted on to repeat his remarkable ’06 campaign). Brian Roberts returns at the top of the order, and if he can stay healthy is a genuine pest to deal with. The O’s seem to have cornered the market on slow, white guys in 1B Aubrey Huff , Jay Gibbons and the irrepressible Kevin Millar (who, if foul balls counted for anything but strikes would be hitting about .570). C Ramon Hernandez is a veteran, highly competent backstop who will provide an assuring presence to young and old pitchers alike. One-time wonder CF Corey Patterson is back in Baltimore for another go at fulfilling his promise, but the clock’s running out on this kid. The semi-despicable Jay Payton came over from Oakland to play left, and the declining Melvin Mora will be at third (Brooks Robinson he ain’t).

The bottom line here is that the Orioles have significantly upgraded their pitching, but the everyday lineup is rather mediocre. Every team in the AL East is improved from last year. They’ll hit their share of homers, but as Red Sox fans can well attest, the long ball isn’t the end all and be all. Other than Roberts, they won’t be burning up the basepaths. It’ll be fourth place for Sam Perlozzo’s charges this year.

Tampa Bay: What can you say about a franchise that rakes in more money through revenue sharing than it will actually pay out in salary? This is taking the concept of “corporate welfare” to the level of the absurd. At least the ownership is of new vintage, having kicked King Vince off of his “Royal Throne”. Also, Manager Joe Maddon is the perfect choice for a team that is looking to establish its identity by building from within. He’s a no-BS sort who commands the respect of his players. The Di'vil Rays have been steadily building a highly talented core of players over the last few years. LF Carl Crawford and CF Rocco Baldelli (when healthy) are All-Star caliber players, serious impact guys at the top of the lineup. The Rays did some spend of their ill-gotten revenue sharing dough to procure the potent 3B Akinori Iwamura from Japan. He’s projected to be more of a line drive gap hitter than a legitimate power threat. Headcase RF Delmon Young will finally get a full-time opportunity to showcase his highly publicized talent. Let’s hope that he’ll keep both hands on the bat when he’s in the batter’s box. Speaking of neck-down talent, the gifted OF Elijah Dukes is slated to make the club as a reserve outfielder. All that talent combined with immature stupid behavior; it’s time for this kid to humbly appreciate his gifts and act like a man. B.J. Upton was once the can’t-miss prized prospect, it now appears that his star has dimmed as he can’t crack the everyday lineup. 2B Jorge Cantu is looking to rebound from an injury-filled ’06. When he’s healthy, the guy can hit the baseball. Returning at first is one-time Met phenom Ty Wigginton, who had a good first year in St. Pete. Dioner Navarro, who was once a highly prized Yankee prospect gets his first full season as a starter behind the plate. Greg “Hey” Norton will DH and get time at first and in the outfield. OF Jonny Gomes and the slick fielding Carlos Pena (why did Boston fail to tender him an offer, anyway?) will also get plenty of time for Joe Maddon.

On the mound, the Rays will trot out Scott Kazmir and a cast of thousands. One time Met Jae Seo will fill in the spots with one-time Red Sox/D-Back Casey Fossum, James Shields, and one-time Dodger phenom Edwin Jackson. If this kid can ever get his act together, the Rays may have unearthed a diamond in the rough. The Rays also have two fine young pitching prospects in Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot, who may be ready to help the big club down the line this year.

As of the final weekend of Spring Training, the bullpen shapes up as Shawn Camp, Ruddy Lugo, Brian Stokes, (one-time Royals’ prospect) Gary Glover and Chad Orvella. Righties, all and not a household name in the bunch. Al Reyes has won the closer’s job. A few years back, he was pretty hot stuff in old Saint Loo, but then he blew his arm out and has made the long and painful recovery to the majors. If he can regain his form of a few seasons ago, the Rays may have solved their closer’s spot.

In 2007, Tampa Bay will not lose in excess of 100 games. Even so, they have nothing to lose by playing their hearts out every day. There’s a lot of “filler-type material” in the everyday lineup, and questions abound as to how effective Iwamura will be. However, with the exception of Crawford and Baldelli (who’ve already earned their stripes) it’s time, high time for some of these can’t-miss kids to stick and contribute as major leaguers. Young, Dukes and Upton have nothing left to prove in Triple-A. If, by chance, these kids can do the job on an everyday basis, then the sky’s the limit. For this season, it’ll be more paying dues in the Dome. Beyond Kazmir, there are a lot of holes and a ton of opportunities for some of these guys to make an impression. It’s possible that the Rays could sniff the rarified air of fourth place, but don’t make any plans for the parade route just yet.